The French post-structuralist philosopher, Michel Foucault, had a fascination with Iran. When a million people descended onto the streets in 1979 to oust the venal and corrupt Shah, he declared it to be the ultimate proof of his theory of revolutions – one of the very few historical examples of a popular overthrow that was not simply an elite coup d’etat.
With estimates of one to two million people on the streets of Tehran last night, history might appear to be repeating itself. The very fact is staggering in itself. Nothing has been seen like it since the 1970s. The few protests Tehran has seen in the interim have been deeply stage-managed by the regime – predictable gatherings of supporters bussed in from outside the capital to chant the regime’s slogans of ‘Death to Israel’ and ‘Death to America’.
The current uprising couldn’t be more different. Young, hopeful and angry crowds gather to fight for their democratic voice. The scenes are chaotic, unplanned and now appear to be resulting in tragic violence. My experience of Tehran is of a peaceful, low crime city, where the main danger is from the appalling pollution and manic car drivers. That has been shattered in the last days, as demonstrators defy official declarations that their protests are illegal.
For seasoned Iran-watchers, this is totally unexpected. Yes, the Iranian people – especially the urban middle classes – have been frustrated and yearn for greater freedom. There is no shortage of people who would have come up to you in Tehran to vent their frustrations over the last two decades. But until now, they have tended to cage their criticism with the insistence that they do not want another revolution – having experienced the horrific violence that followed the creation of the Islamic Republic. It seems now the anger of decades of repression has boiled over into outright rebellion.
Many of them are too young to remember the first revolution, however. With young people all over the world changing their facebook pictures to green in support of the defeated Iranian presidential candidate, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the hype is building about the ability of social networks to overthrow a government – ’the revolution will be twittered‘ so they claim.
Well, what better place to start my research than with my friend Hamed (not his real name) – who I contacted via hotmail. He’s a smart young man, who spent two years doing compulsory military service with the Revolutionary Guards.
I asked him what made him think the election had been stolen. “You should see Facebook. Everybody has changed their profile picture to a green logo with a statement reading ’Where’s My Vote?’. People are sharing the latest videos and news in facebook.”
Well, it’s not the most scientific reason, but it expresses the way the movement for change in Iran is growing exponentially.
Of course, Hamed pointed to more obvious indications that the election was stolen. The fact that Ahmadinejad was only expected to do well with a low turnout – and yet 85% of the population voted. The fact that the interior ministry declared the results just two hours after polls closed – far faster than ever before, despite the huge number of extra votes that should have been counted.
Regions of the country which are deeply hostile to the Islamic Republic or to Ahmadinejad, such as Khuzestan or Mousavi’s home town, were declared to have backed the current president – totally against opinion polling or previous results.
In fact, figures leaked from the interior ministry suggest that Mousavi may have in fact received around 19 million votes followed by Ayatollah Karrubi with 13 million. Ahmadinejad at the maximum received just 6 million votes.
The interior ministry, it is claimed, phoned Mousavi to congratulate him on his victory, though quickly changing their mind, no doubt under instructions.
A powerful axis helped create the result – the triangular structure of the Revolutionary Guards, the Basiji (a kind of paramilitary loyal to Khamenei) and the Supreme Leader could not stand aside and let a reformist win the presidency. They have the financial and military resources at their disposal. The final piece of the jigsaw is the corrupt electoral infrastructure. The minister of interior (Sadegh Mahsooli) has been accused of corruption in parliament. His neophyte election supervisor (Kamran Daneshjoo) is one of Ahmadinejad’s closest allies. Both of them were sitting next to him in courts when Ahmadinejad petitioned to close down several independent newspapers.
The question now is what happens next. The 1979 revolutionaries were a broad coalition of leftists, intellectuals, middle classes and frustrated youths who only eventually coalesced under the banner of Khomeini’s vision of Islam. Those who paid the greatest price in blood after the Ayatollahs came to power were those former allies.
Could the Islamic Republic be on its last legs? There is a better than 50/50 chance right now – the regime is deeply disturbed. Although their power runs deep and wide, an overthrow could come from crowds in the cities who support reform, while the traditional supporters in the rural population look on.
The regime will fight back of course. Expect more crackdowns and violence in the next days. But that too just gave greater impetus to the crowds in ‘79 – until the savagery of the Shah’s secret police motivated ever increasing numbers of people to protest. Eventually many of those impelled to protect the regime – such as in the army – refused to turn on their fellow Iranians. If that begins to happen now, it will soon be game over.
The greatest danger will come after an overthrow. Can Mousavi emerge as a leader of the street protesters? He is not a reformist in the style of Khatami, let alone a true democrat. The alternative is that Iran could begin to tear itself apart with Shi’a extremists fighting the Arabs of Khuzestan or the Kurds in the north west.
It is hard to predict, but if things begin to change rapidly, the international community must be ready to act swiftly. Not just evacuating its own citizens, but giving hope, life and real support to what might just become the world’s newest democracy.