My top three political-speeches-gone-wrong are Howard Dean’s ‘I have a scream’ in 2004, Kinnock’s calamitous ‘We’re alright’ at the Sheffield Rally in 1992, and Peter Mandelson’s victory speech in 2001 where he informed us he was a ‘fighter not a quitter.’
Mandelson’s stands out from the toe-curling trio, though, because it is the only one which turned out to be true. In 1992, we were not ‘alright’. We lost 41% to 34%. Dean did not go on to ‘take South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan, and then we’re going to Washington DC, to take back the White House’; he ended up on a fast train to Nowheresville. But Lord Mandelson, first secretary, and the most powerful man in the cabinet, has shown no sign of quitting, and plenty of signs of fighting: mostly with the Tories, sometimes with the CWU.
He’s a rare breed. There’s not much fight in the Parliamentary Labour Party at the moment. This week around Westminster it felt like the changing rooms after an 8-nil defeat. The news that two more Labour MPs – Derek Wyatt and Harry Cohen – are standing down, added to the mood of despondency. Wyatt characteristically announced his retirement on Twitter. They join an ever-growing roll call of Labour MPs who are jacking it in before the election.
There’s little pattern to those who are leaving: it affects young and old, safe and marginal seats, and all parts of the UK. Some are former ministers (Ruth Kelly, John Reid, John Prescott, Ian McCartney, John Hutton, Chris Mullin). Some are in the south (John Austin, Keith Hill, Rudi Vis, Des Turner, Martin Salter). Some in the north (Richard Caborn, John Battle, Fraser Kemp, Eric Martlew, Ann Cryer). Scotland is losing Adam Ingram, Gavin Strang, Rosemary McKenna and Mohammed Sarwar. Wales says goodbye to John Smith, Betty Williams and Alan Williams. Some have tiny majorities such as Bob Marshall Andrews (majority 213). Others such as my former boss Patricia Hewitt (majority 9,070) are leaving behind solid majorities for their successors. A minority are causalities of the expenses scandal. Some are at pension age. More are leaving to pursue a second career beyond Westminster. Of the 24 members of the Campaign Group so far nine are going, including Alan Simpson, Ann Cryer, Bill Etherington and David Taylor.
At the present count, many months before the last possible date for an election, there are nearly 50 Labour MPs who have told their local parties they are going. It’s set to accelerate. Research conducted by Professor Colin Rallings, director of the elections centre at Plymouth University, suggests that about 170 Labour MPs will not defend their seats. So before a single seat has changed hands in the election, Labour will have lost nearly half its current MPs. For perspective, remember that in 1997 just 38 Labour MPs retired before the election.
What does the exodus mean? For a new generation of would-be Labour MPs there has never been a better time to try to become a PPC, at least statistically. There will be plenty of opportunities for selections in seats currently held by Labour. There are still many wonderful people who want to be Labour MPs, and many of them deserve to succeed. I meet them all the time.
But it also has a terrible effect on the morale of those that remain. Many will see their colleagues announce their retirement and envy them. They will come under pressure from spouses. They will think about their generous pensions. In darker moments, they may even contemplate the terrible life of a Labour MP in opposition, should the worst happen and the Tories win. No wonder so many Labour MPs are so fed-up. They are limping towards parliamentary recess like the stragglers in a marathon on a hot day nearing the finishing line. Even the by-election in Norwich North is failing to set their hearts aflutter.
The best thing that can happen now is that the quitters should quit quickly. There should be no peerages dangled in front of late-retirees, in order to shoe-horn favoured sons and daughters from union head offices or Number 10 into Labour seats in the final hours before polling day. That’s a corrupt practice which treats local electors and local Labour parties with contempt. Those that want to quit should announce their intention before the end of the summer. Those that want to stay and fight should get our full support. I don’t blame any of the quitters; they each have their reasons, and I wish them well.
But right now we need more fighters.