It might seem a little premature to judge President Obama as an international statesman just 9 months after his inauguration, but given the huge weight of expectation across the world, he had a lot to live up to even before he was awarded that Nobel peace prize.
The prize, which might become something of a millstone, is not a recognition of concrete achievements, but seems to principally have been awarded to him for not being George W Bush. Of course, the new style of US diplomacy, and the desire to restore America’s reputation in the world is a good start – ‘a new beginning’ as Obama put it in an emotional appeal to Muslim communities at Cairo University in June.
With the small matters of healthcare reform and the fiscal stimulus to attend to, Obama could be forgiven for not devoting swathes of his attention to the US’s many diplomatic and security challenges in the year since his election. The old adage goes that most presidents don’t get round to focussing on foreign affairs until their second term, but the terrible inheritance that his predecessor left him is ratcheting the pressure on the White House to act swiftly on a whole range of problems.
Obama showed decisiveness early on, quickly acting on campaign promises to start closing Guantanamo and begin the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. But for those fearing a precipitous end to either, the President has shown no sign of being rushed. They will both happen, just not quite yet.
The other, more concerning area where the president has not rushed to a decision is Afghanistan. Despite the embarrassingly public requests for more troops from General McChrystal, the White House has refused to be drawn into committing to a new deployment, or the announcement of a new political strategy to match the military one that has been drawn up.
Of course the failings in Afghanistan cannot all be laid at the US President’s door. Afghan politicians have no-one to blame but themselves for the corruption and fraud that disenfranchised their people, and played into the Taliban’s hand. Given the blood and treasure the US, UK, Canada and others have spent since 2001, the public are right to be angry with them. But what looked just a week ago to be a victory (of sorts) for the patient diplomacy of Obama’s envoy, Senator Kerry, when the election run-off was announced, now seems more like a farce. A unity government will help, and no doubt the US are pushing hard for this in private, but one way or the other the President must now decide the future of America’s role.
Obama’s advisers rightly saw the need to link their strategy to Pakistan, with a massive $7.5bn aid package to the country. Congress established conditionalities aimed at pressuring Pakistan’s military to tackle Al Qaeda and the Taliban more effectively, but the lack of a stronger US and NATO military commitment to her neighbour has led to accusations that the US are trying to get Pakistan to fight America’s battles on the cheap.
While fears of the nuclear state being overrun by the Taliban are somewhat exaggerated, Obama can be commended for his announcements in Eastern Europe on non-proliferation and disarmament, and his decision to scrap the seemingly unworkable son of Star Wars scheme.
In Iran, the abject human rights and democratic situation has had to be met with a hard headedness on solving the nuclear impasse. The decision to release information about the Qom site, combined with pressing the reset button with Russia, appears – for now – to be persuading Moscow to toughen their stance and bring the Iranians into line. The nuclear clock is ticking fast though, and the P5+1 must show they will bear no more delaying tactics by Tehran.
On the Middle East, Obama can be commended for showing a far earlier and deeper interest than Bush, but the settlement freeze policy – although now more nuanced – has played into the hands of hardliners in Israel. The result has not been to start effective talks, but the creation of a new pre-condition for talks.
The President will visit Asia later this month, and we may begin to see his attitude toward China develop – will the world begin to shift from a G20 model to a G2?
Diplomats have been keen to stress that the visit will not lead to a new Sino-US pact on climate change – probably the greatest threat the world faces today. On this issue, as ever, it looked like the US was trailing the EU, and even China’s announcement at the UN. Obama says he is committed, but if Congress does pass the healthcare bill, then he must use the momentum of that victory to press them on tough binding targets on emissions and clean energy.
So many of these issues can only be tackled through sustained international co-operation, and while the list of Obama’s achievements is still short (whatever the Swedish think), his new style of diplomacy and rhetoric should help address this daunting agenda.