As with all big set pieces, the 24-hour news networks get rather giddy in the run-up to the state of the union. This time the talk was of one-term presidents and Obama’s chances in 2012. The president himself was on the defensive, saying to Diane Sawyer of ABC News that he’d rather be a good one-term president than a mediocre two-termer.
That all seemed rather excitable; losing Kennedy’s seat might have been a shock to Dems, but it’s not clear that voters saw that election as a referendum on Obama’s policy agenda. (Massachusetts already enjoys something like universal healthcare, so this was not a simple rejection of the president’s healthcare plans.) More generally, Obama’s approval ratings may be down, but their general pattern is not much worse than that of previous two-term presidents.
Nonetheless, Wednesday’s speech was clearly framed as an opportunity for Obama to rescue a flagging presidency. The first ask was that he end his laser focus on healthcare, and pay more attention to employment – the national jobless rate stands at 10 per cent. On this, the speech has been broadly seen as successful. Obama stated clearly that: “jobs must be our number one focus in 2010”. Healthcare was not even mentioned until 31 minutes in, and, when it came, was framed as a way to relieve pressure on families and reduce the deficit. The wording was collaborative but determined: “If anyone has a better approach let me know… But don’t walk away from reform. Let’s get it done”.
The second ask had more to do with tone. By failing to focus on jobs, Obama has seemed detached from the concerns of ordinary Americans. His communication style, so inspirational in the campaign, is increasingly seen as didactic and aloof. At times, that has infuriated independents, who feel he’s not listening, and it has de-energised Democrats, who wish he’d get real and accept that bipartisanship is getting him nowhere in the face of Republican intransigence.
Resetting that tone was perhaps a more difficult challenge. Obama clearly tried; the language in the speech was unusually grounded, practical and specific. There was less poetry and metaphor, and more simple stories of ordinary Americans. Yet there wasn’t much contrition here. The president still only admits presentational failings, and the professorial gestures remained.
Democrats may be more encouraged by the partisan elements of the speech. In particular, Obama was aggressive in attacking Republican blocking tactics: “just saying no to everything may be good short term politics, but it’s not leadership”. Yet he still seems genuinely surprised at the level of that obstinacy. At a telling point in the speech, he reeled off a long list of tax cuts which should have brought Republicans to their feet. When they sat still, the president couldn’t hide his surprise: “I thought I’d get some applause on that one”. As Charles Blow of NYT has long argued, this next year might require a little more fight.