Calls for demonstrations on 11 February, the day of the anniversary of the 1979 revolution, failed to produce the turnout hoped for by the opposition. The regime had prepared well: militias and police were out in force, communications interrupted, and regime supporters bussed in to Tehran.
However, there were also damaging splits within the ranks of the opposition, especially concerning the movement’s aims. Some dissidents wanted to demonstrate for a secular, democratic government, which seemed alarming to those still committed to reforming the present system. These divisions meant that some people were always going to stay away from the protests, because their own aims were not being given the priority they felt they deserved. In addition, even some of those who favoured secularism may have felt that the time was not right for it, and that calls of this sort would create a backlash. Some members of this group may have stayed away as well.
Many of those in opposition would have understood what effect direct challenges to the system would have on the Basijis and others whose task it was to police the rally and prevent disorder. They would have remembered that during previous protests the demonstrators often met with sympathy from militiamen but that this sort of behaviour had its limits. The more disloyalty shown to the principles of the revolution on Revolution Day above all others, the less sympathy and tolerance would emanate from those in uniform. The Basij and Revolutionary Guard were both created to defend the revolution, and are chosen for their loyalty to it, which means in practice to the regime as well.
There are splits in both organisations between hardliners and reformers, which in some past cases made it possible for demonstrators to take control of the streets. However, by calling for a regime change, the opposition radicals were also aiming to undermine not only the principles of the revolution, which would have created antagonism from those same uniformed men, but it would have meant a threat to their livelihoods and privileges as well. A secular regime would be most unlikely to retain a military force which was ideologically committed to the principles of the regime it had just overthrown.
It is hence little wonder that fewer demonstrators were on the streets on 11 February, because the situation had become unusually flammable. Despite these weaknesses, the turnout of protesters was reasonable and those who came out were determined, which means that there is plenty of life in the opposition movement. The greens have already begun to address the issues which divide them, which means a setback is likely to be transformed into an eventual victory. It may be that calls to reform the system are the best way forward, as it will create the most unity. The irony is that calls for reform may eventually topple the government which has so far, through inflexibility, shown itself to be un-reformable.