The decision in 1997 to give the Bank of England independence over interest rates is probably the most famous example. As Chancellor, the final lines of his Budget speeches used to be the most keenly anticipated, often ending with a final flourish that disorientated his political opponents and left opposition benches fumbling to respond. Pre-election cuts to income tax and post-election increases in national insurance to pay for additional investment in the NHS were classic examples of Brown’s political conjuring.
I wonder therefore whether the master magician has one final surprise up his sleeve.
Imagine the following scenario: on March 29th, having visited Buckingham Palace, Gordon Brown announces that the General Election will take place on Thursday May 6th. He also pledges that, if elected as Prime Minister, he would not seek to serve a full term in office but would stay as long as it takes to stabilise the economy and to finish the financial reforms undertaken by him since the credit crunch began in 2008.
Why would a man who spent so many years yearning to be PM then give it away so quickly? Firstly, it might attract back those floating voters who are unsure about David Cameron but couldn’t stomach another five years of a Brown Premiership. Secondly it would show that Brown is above party politics and reinstate a desire – first made when he became PM – to act in the national rather than party interest. As he has repeatedly stated, bringing Britain through its worst recession since the War is not a job for a novice, but a man steeped in economic experience. Thirdly, it would signal to younger members of the Parliamentary Labour Party that the Brown/Blair era is over and that the future of the Labour Party is now in their hands. That might even persuade a few Ministers to postpone their retirement and stay on.
The pitfalls are clearly obviously, however. Such an announcement could allow the Conservatives to define Brown as a lame-duck leader. Why wait 18 months to get rid of Gordon when you can do it now, Cameron could say. It could also unleash a frenzied bout of jockeying within the Labour party as different wings and candidates fight to assume the leadership mantle. Having had three years of leadership speculation and failed coups, does Labour really want another period of intense speculation?
It also has very little chance of happening, not least given his apparent willingness to stay on as leader even if Labour loses the election, as he declared today. I suspect that once you become PM it’s incredibly difficult to contemplate stepping down when you still have a myriad of ideas and priorities. As Andrew Rawnsley writes about in his new book, The End of the Party, Tony Blair agonised for years as to when to step down. That said, it could electrify the election campaign and offer Brown a dignified closure to his political career. Stranger things have happened and politics is a very strange game.
Photo: World Economic Forum 2008