First, the dispute. British Airways is losing money hand over fist. According to the Economist, in the nine months to the end of last year, BA lost an eye-watering £342 million. More importantly, BA is losing business to its competitors such as EasyJet, who offer cheaper no-frills flights. The response of the BA management, typical of every management faced by mounting losses, is to cut costs by reducing staff, salaries and conditions. They say that cabin crew must have their pay frozen for two years, that personnel numbers on long flights should be reduced from 15 to 14, and new staff should join on reduced terms and conditions.

The union says this is unsafe and unfair. The cabin crew are members of the British Airlines Stewards and Stewardesses Association (BASSA) which is now a part of the Unite trade union. Their ballot showed solid support for strike action. Unite said that 78.77 per cent of the 11,691 ballot papers issued were returned. Of those 80.7 per cent (7,482) supported taking action with 1,789 voting against it. The cabin crew have been promised support from airline unions in the USA, Australia and across Europe. The dispute is closely tied into the internal politics of Unite. Len McCluskey, who is leading the strike, is a contender for general secretary of Unite when the current Woodley/Simpson leadership steps down. He is supported by the ‘United Left’ faction within the union. He knows a successful resolution to the dispute will put him in pole position when the election for general secretary comes.

The BA management have been making their preparations to break the strike. Willie Walsh and the BA board have been recruiting blackleg staff, including pilots, and chartering aeroplanes to replace services hit by the action. The strike will see the traditional battle for hearts and minds, with competing accounts of numbers of strikers and level of shut-down.

You can predict now what will happen. If there’s a last-minute deal, it will be no more than a flimsy sticking plaster. If the strike goes ahead, it will probably stay solid. British Airways will lose even more money, and customers will desert BA in droves, never to return. Both sides will return to the table. Some kind of compromise deal will get thrashed out, with both sides claiming a victory of sorts. It’s a dispute caused by historic changes to the industry, rather than penny-pinching bosses. Fewer people can afford a small mortgage to fly to Thailand in utter luxury; fewer businesses are willing to pay top dollar for their executives to fly around the world. More companies can use video-conferencing, and more people are willing to suffer ‘no-frills’.

And the politics? Gordon Brown will call a general election within days. His trip to Buckingham Palace is probably booked for 6 April, just after Easter. It will be the mostly tightly-fought election since 1992. It will be a calamity on a grand scale if the Labour government is seen as the ‘strikers’ friend’. The Tories have made a lame attempt to embarrass Labour over its links to Unite, but as I wrote yesterday in my column over at LabourList, the polls suggest it isn’t working.

Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis got the politics absolutely spot-on when he spoke on the Andrew Marr Show last Sunday.

He said:

“Let’s be absolutely clear, the stakes are incredibly high in this strike. And I absolutely deplore the strike – it is not only the damage it’s going to do to passengers and the inconvenience it’s going to cause, which is quite disproportionate to the issues at stake, but also the threat it poses to the future of one of our great companies in this country. It’s totally unjustified, this strike, on the merits of issues at stake, and I do call on the union to engage constructively with the company at this late stage.”

When pressed by Marr, Adonis said:

“They should call off this strike. They should get back into negotiations with British Airways again. They came very, very close to an agreement last week. So close that I believe if they could continue these negotiations in a constructive way, it would be possible to call this strike off. And I call on them to engage in those negotiations and to put the public first and to put the company first, and not to take action which not only would be deeply damaging to the economy and to the public, but which could threaten the very jobs of their members which they’re seeking to protect.”

Being on the side of the public, and against strikes which could be avoided, is exactly where a New Labour government should be right now. Andrew Adonis is an impressive Labour minister, and his instincts on this are right. Tony Woodley’s subsequent attacks on him were intemperate, ill-judged and unfair.

The Unite general secretary said:

“For an unelected person who hasn’t got a clue about this dispute, it would have been wiser for him to have kept his counsel. He’s got no industrial experience whatsoever.”

A few Labour MPs joined in, but were soon silenced when the prime minister backed his cabinet colleague. On BBC Radio 4’s Women’s Hour Gordon Brown said the strike was “unjustified” and “deplorable”. Deplorable is a strong word to use, but the PM always chooses his words with care. Like Adonis, he’s right.

There is an instinctive reaction amongst most Labour party people to back strike action. Few enter into an industrial dispute lightly. Most of the time strikes have worthy motives, and deserve our support. This is not one of them. It is not a strike which Unite can win. Most likely, it will be another staging post in the collapse of British Airways as a viable company. The best thing that could happen now is for the strike to be called off, and negotiations to start afresh.

Photo: Francois Roche 2008