President Alvaro Uribe has been the longest-serving president in the recent history of Colombia. When he became president there were 2,900 hostages held by guerrilla and paramilitaries in Colombia, 57 per cent of Colombians were classified as poor and 1.5 per cent of agricultural land was used for cocaine crops. Eight years later, Colombia is considered a safer country mainly due to the outcome of the tough government strategy combating guerrillas. However, poverty and drug trafficking are still serious challenges for the government. The argument that security should bring prosperity per se has been proved wrong. Now that president Uribe’s term is coming to an end, what have we really gained and lost over his administration?

President Uribe took office in 2002. He was elected with 53 per cent of the electoral vote and re-elected in 2006 with 62 per cent, one of the highest voting turnouts in the history of Colombia. His popularity has been fuelled by his ‘democratic security’ policy targeted to defeat guerrillas and paramilitaries, and it has never been below 60 per cent in eight years of administration. In 2008 it rose to almost 90 per cent after the extraordinary military strategy to release political hostage Ingrid Betancourt held by the FARC.

President Uribe’s popularity shows how important security is for Colombians. Guerrillas’ kidnapping tactics and their links with drug trafficking made lost them support, even from those sympathising with the left. In 2008 more than five million Colombians around the world (nearly 10 per cent of the population) participated in a march against FARC organised by young civilians. The reason why guerrillas are so discredited in Colombia is that people no longer believe they are driven by ideals of justice and equity. They seem to be fighting for getting control over coca production rather than empowering the rural poor – their claimed mission.

Despite the achievements of president Uribe’s administration fighting against guerrillas, there are serious gaps on the overall outcome of his security policies. First, alongside guerrillas, Colombian paramilitaries had taken part in kidnapping, violence and drug trafficking. However, they underwent a highly criticised demobilisation process lead by the government that granted amnesty to paramilitary members who committed atrocious crimes. Second, Colombia has the second largest population of internal displaced persons. It is estimated that three million people have been displaced over the last ten years as a result of the internal conflict. They mostly live in extreme poverty with low schooling and employment rates. Third, more than 60 per cent of rural population live in poverty. The lack of opportunities for young men and women in isolated areas jeopardise the sustainability of the peace process. As long as guerrillas benefit from drug trafficking, they will be able to offer poor youngsters enough money to ‘buy’ their loyalty.

The failures of president Uribe’s ‘democratic security’ policy have taken their toll on his popularity. The astonishment created by the flimsy feeling of security seems to be fading away. Colombians recognise the economic gains from security – more tourism, increasing foreign direct investment and revival of agricultural production. However, we also claim that social policy has suffered the most. It wouldn’t be fair to say that president Uribe’s administration has done nothing for the poor. There have been improvements in education, housing and health but spending more than 20 per cent of GDP on fighting guerrillas necessarily takes money out from social programmes needed all around the country. Half of Colombians still live in poverty and Colombia is the most unequal country in Latin America. Infrastructure of roads and rail remains poor and coca production keeps employing peasants in isolated areas. There is no perception of real security because poverty, the root of the problem, is not yet solved.

Another controversial strategy of the Uribe administration is his relations with American (both north and south) presidents. He is one of the few right-wing presidents in south America, which has brought him closer to the US – particularly president Bush’s administration. This relationship seemed positive for the country because the US would help us fighting drug trafficking, giving us money through the Plan Colombia, and would increase international trade by signing a free trade agreement between both nations. However, eight years later, the Plan Colombia hasn’t fulfilled people’s expectations, because of its low efficiency and negative ecological impact, and the Free Trade Agreement is far away from even getting signed. In contrast, the US benefit from this close relation by getting president Uribe’s consent to setting up military bases in Colombia for their security strategy even when all south American presidents rejected the proposal. The impact of this political move on Colombia’s participation in south American integration is yet to be seen.

Whatever the outcome of president Uribe’s administration, his term will be over soon and the upcoming elections are critical for the country. It is clear that Colombia has gained security at the expense of social programmes. There is also an obvious failure in foreign affairs with countries among the region and the fight against drug trafficking. However, 35 per cent of Colombians want Uribe to stay in power because they believe no other candidate would be as good as him on security. So the question is, would we really be lost without him? There is uncertainty because we have experienced security only during his administration. Before him, we lived under terror so don’t know how things would be without him. We know that peace will only be achieved by fighting the roots of the war but don’t want to take the risk of losing what president Uribe accomplished. Colombians expect the new president to bring the best of both worlds – security and social justice. Whether there is any capable candidate, only time will tell. 

Photo: xplan303ex 2009

Maria Carolina Latorre is an associate researcher at the Institute for Public Policy Research – ippr and Director of Psocial a consultancy company specialising in research for social policy
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