‘We can win from this point’, says New Labour polling guru Philip Gould in this month’s Progress Magazine, which, as he says, is quite remarkable when you think about the mood of the party just before Christmas. The polls are volatile but at the time of writing all the talk is of a hung parliament. Any government three terms on would find it difficult to win a fourth term. This one has had the albatrosses of Iraq, and the economic and expenses crises to contend with. The wonder surely ought to be why the Tories aren’t performing better. If they do win, there won’t be the euphoria of 1997. But neither will there be, or should there be, the despair of 1979. Labour won’t have lost because it is deeply out of step with the public. If anything, the last two months have shown that despite the lack of money, the tiredness and the hostile media, Labour can pull itself together, stay unified and lead with radical and fresh ideas.

The content of the manifesto is not yet known, but its central themes project the positive and future-oriented message a progressive party should – going for growth, particularly through green industries, better jobs for all, safeguarding and improving frontline services and building a new politics. Three campaigns that Progress has made the running on look set to be included in one form or another, including the greater use of mutualisation in public services, a commitment to a referendum on electoral reform (though it would be a disappointment not to prioritise this in the wash-up), and granted it isn’t going to shift opinion on the doorstep, a move to reform our unjust libel laws. The manifesto development process has been one of the most open and consultative in recent memory. Ed Miliband, one of the brightest and most approachable politicians of his generation, addressed Progress’ manifesto day in January and has acknowledged our contribution to keeping the party’s grey cells active.

But no matter how inspiring the manifesto is, it won’t win the election. Only a combination of steady leadership and mass movement organisation can. Labour’s in good shape here too. The failed January coup put paid to the damaging speculation about Gordon Brown’s leadership and oddly galvanised the party into action. The triumvirate of Peter Mandelson, Douglas Alexander (who is interviewed in this month’s edition of Progress) and Harriet Harman are both turning the ship round and uniting different wings of the party. Unlike the Conservatives, Labour’s central narrative – that we made the right call on the economy and have the right solutions to securing Britain’s economic future – has remained steady since the turn of the year. Yes, there have been setbacks – union strikes have been particularly irresponsible at this stage before an election, and while there are some valid concerns about securing fair working rights, our comrades should be careful what they wish for. As Michael Leahy, general secretary of the Community union, acknowledges in the magazine, the Tories will go to war with the unions if they win. Some may see New Labour as synonymous with Margaret Thatcher, but let’s see if the same people agree if David Cameron gets into Downing Street.

The sorry mess of lobbygate hasn’t helped either. But all of the MPs in question are leaving parliament, and we’ve got an impressive generation replacing them. The real story about Labour’s selection of new candidates is that for every parachute and union-backed contest, there is the opposite. Emma Reynolds winning on an open shortlist in Wolverhampton, for example, or Pamela Nash, aged 25, winning the hearts of local members fair and square in her Scottish home seat without favour or patronage. It’s a shame that some of our stars such as Lucy Powell, Ruth Smeeth, Rushanara Ali and Luciana Berger are in marginal seats, though their nous and verve means they are putting up a serious fight which might just see them beating national swing. Fingers crossed, the roll call of MPs after the next election will provide a solid base of new blood in the PLP – our own Stephen Twigg, Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall, John Woodcock, Kate Green, Gloria de Piero, Chuka Umunna and many more besides, will help to usher in a new era of New Labour. As Gould proffers, there will be something to replace New Labour, and it will be this new generation who will be in charge of creating it.

Against all odds, it looks like the party organisation is fighting fit. As Alex Smith points out on p12, by investing in database technology and giving open access to members, the party is now amassing 200,000 new voter contacts a week – a massive improvement on 2005. Progress is doing its bit too. We’ve launched David vs Goliath and RateMyTory to beat Ashcroft cash and expose the anti-progressives within the Tories who have hitherto been left under-scrutinised. But the best thing about this moment is its sense of purpose, solidarity and closeness, as Gould puts it. We’re just at the start of this century, we can make it a progressive one if we remember what we’re here for and that our enemies are not each other, but poverty, insecurity and lack of hope. If we stick together, we’ll win together.