Economy

As the world stood on the brink of financial collapse in 2008, no one should forget that the Tories made the wrong call on the two biggest economic decisions for a generation. First, they voted against the banking bill, which gave the government powers to bring Northern Rock into public ownership. George Osborne called the bill ‘completely unacceptable’. Second, they opposed the fiscal stimulus, which has propped up domestic demand and kept thousands of people in work.

During the election, the debate will focus on the timing and speed of deficit reduction. The Tories find themselves in the virtually unique position of wanting cuts in 2010-11, no matter how weak the economy. Even the 20 economists who appeared to support them in a letter to the Sunday Times said: ‘The exact timing of measures should be sensitive to developments in the economy, particularly the fragility of the recovery.’

The question of speed is more debatable. The Labour government has already set out how it will halve the £178bn deficit over the course of the next parliament. Some will come from new growth, £38bn will come from painful public spending cuts with another £19bn in tax rises, including to National Insurance. The Tories have said they want only 20% to come from tax rises but also want to meet the EU’s target of a 3% deficit. Achieving this would mean an additional £33bn in cuts to public services beyond Labour’s plans. What would hit the cutting room floor is not clear, to say the least.

Jobs

The main component of the fiscal stimulus was the cut to VAT, but equally important was the £5bn government investment to help the unemployed. The Conservatives, of course, voted against the entire package and now have the cheek to use an election slogan which boasts they will ‘Get Britain working’.

Although the labour market is by no means out of the woods – with worrying trends, for example, in long-term unemployment – it has rebounded more quickly than in any previous recession where data has been available. It took 21 quarters for unemployment to fall during Margaret Thatcher’s first recession, compared to just seven quarters in this downturn. Chief among the measures that have helped has been the Future Jobs Fund which has created a total of 117,000 jobs so far, including for sports coaches, youth workers, solar panel installers, housing and classroom assistants.

And because of this action, the government has actually saved money. As the latest unemployment figures came out, work and pensions secretary Yvette Cooper outlined that: ‘Half a million fewer people are out of work than anticipated at the time of last year’s budget – saving over £10bn as a result.’ The measure is clear evidence of how fiscal stimulus can save money in the long run – a point lost on the Conservatives.

Families

The Tories claim to want to ‘make Britain the most family-friendly country in Europe’, but their draft manifesto for families was only four pages long and centred around their desire to reward marriage in the tax system. They are vague about the precise nature of the policy, so any analysis tends to be based on the different schemes devised by Iain Duncan Smith.

The biggest idea on the table, to provide a transferable tax allowance for all married couples, would cost £4.9bn. This may be too expensive and they may, instead, go for a £900m scheme for married couples with kids aged under three. But both policies are regressive, and potentially target 13 times more support at the richest tenth in society than the poorest. The young and poor would also be the prime losers if the policy, which ignores social trends, was introduced.

Beyond this pledge, which dates back to David Cameron’s leadership bid, is a more sinister set of policies which undermine the Tories’ claims to value the family. Osborne wants to reduce the child tax credit budget by £400m – to do this would mean removing the credit from anyone earning under about £31,000. They also want to scrap the child trust fund for any family with an income above £16,000. Their desire to seek an opt out from EU social and employment legislation could undermine a number of flexible working arrangements including 14 weeks maternity leave for women, and 20 days guaranteed annual leave. And they have said they ‘will take Sure Start back to its original purpose’, resulting in the closure of around one in five centres. Meanwhile, the Tory children’s spokesman, Tim Loughton, has suggested that under-16s who have sex should be prosecuted.

Climate change

Cameron’s commitment to tackling climate change appears genuine, even if he does allow his briefcase to be driven to work behind his bike. But there is little sense that his passion is shared by the rest of his party. His adviser, Peter Lilley, tipped by some for a return to the cabinet, regards those concerned by climate change to be engaged in ‘group think’. Nigel Lawson says ‘a warmer climate brings benefits as well as disadvantages’. In the European parliament, Roger Helmer MEP convened a conference of climate sceptics last year while their colleagues in the European Conservatives and Reformists have voted against a motion which called for the Copenhagen talks to agree an 80% cut in emissions by 2050 – the official Tory policy. All this has led the co-spokesperson for the European Greens to say: ‘He claims to be very strong on climate change and he is linking with people who deny that there is climate change in the first place.’

Move beyond their elected officials to the grassroots and things are even worse. Of 141 parliamentary candidates surveyed by Conservative Home, reducing Britain’s carbon footprint was placed bottom of 19 issues. A similar poll in The Times found that only 9 per cent of Tory PPCs think it an established fact that climate change is man-made. The Tory netroots have even less time for the issue: none of their top 10 bloggers believes the theory that man-made global warming is an established fact. Indeed, Tim Montgomerie has said: ‘In the years to come, climate change could be as divisive for Conservatives as Europe.’

Europe

Much has been made of the Conservative party’s decision to isolate themselves in Europe. But it’s still worth remembering exactly who they are sharing this cold bed with.

The leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Michal Kaminski, entered politics as a boyhood member of the National Revival of Poland, a far-right group and member of the European National Front. Meanwhile, his MPs in Poland have called for the monitoring of ‘homosexual websites because we are dealing with the promotion of the so called “positive paedophilia” by some homosexual circles’. The Tories’ Belgian partners have an MP, Jurgen Verstrepen, who has said: ‘From the US to Europe and Asia. Wherever there is “Islam”, there is death, violence, destruction and blind hatred.’ The Dutch Christian Union, also in the ECR, was aligned in last June’s European election with a party found in 2005 to have violated the UN Convention on Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women because, according to the BBC, it refused to allow women to become full members. Their Latvian partners, the For Fatherland and Freedom party, celebrate the Latvian Waffen SS with a march every year.

And this isolationism with extremists has policy implications too. As Charles Grant of the Center for European Reform has told Left Foot Forward: ‘The European parliament has been one of the clear winners from the Lisbon treaty and is stronger now than it’s ever been before. This is particularly true in relation to justice and home affairs issues, international security and environmental action. It is absolutely critical that whoever wins the British election is able to exert influence in the European parliament in Britain’s best interests.’

The creation of the ECR moved the Conservative party from the largest grouping to the fifth largest. If they win, the British public may join Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy in seething at Cameron’s foolish move.

Photo: bjarkihalldors 2008