It’s Friday lunchtime and everyone is holding their breath. As I write, Nick Clegg is waiting at the altar to see if David Cameron turns up with a big enough dowry. If Cameron cannot offer up electoral reform, which is as popular amongst some Tories as athlete’s foot, then Clegg may come calling on Gordon Brown. What kind of minority government will we see? Who knows? I don’t, and neither do you.

In the margins of these epoch-making events, here are some thoughts:

First, there is another election around the corner, almost certainly. That means we need Labour candidates in place in the fifty or sixty key seats where the Tory or Liberal Democrat majority is under a thousand. In the case of narrow losses, such as in Warrington South, the existing PPCs should be asked next week whether they want to carry on. If not, we need new campaigning candidates in place over the summer.

Second, we need to put together a political reform bill, based on the Labour manifesto promises, but going further if that’s the price of Lib Dem support. A referendum on electoral reform should happen this year, and there’s no good reason why different systems as well as AV are not on the ballot paper. At the very least, we should be able to offer AV-plus. This should not be done grudgingly, but enthusiastically. We should have done it in 1999.

Third, the NEC needs to meet next week and establish a review of the campaign: its structure, tactics, resources, and impact.

Fourth, if Labour is going into Opposition, we must become an effective Opposition from the first week. There are a range of parliamentary tricks and tactics which have been left up in the attic since 1997. We need to dust them down, and create teams of parliamentary guerrillas to harry new Tory ministers. We need to spring traps and pin down Ministers night after night. We need to relearn the skills from the 1970s, and fast. It took the Tories a decade to learn how to become an effective Opposition; we need to do it ten weeks.

Fifth, if Gordon Brown resigns in the next few days, the party needs a leadership contest which strengthens our party, not tears it to bits. Another coronation would be a disaster. We’ve had a historical fear of leadership contests, based on the divisive ones in 1981, 1983, and 1988. Yet the deputy leadership contest in 2007 was a positive process, conducted in a comradely fashion. With something around 250 Labour MPs, a potential candidate needs only 20-odd nominations to stand for the leadership. That means a wide field is both possible and desirable. A ten-week process to elect a new leader and deputy leader, from nomination to election, can give the party a fresh start in time for conference.

Two great questions come out of the results last night and this morning: why did the Tories not do better, given their bottomless coffers, and position as the only viable alternative? And why did Labour not do worse, given the problems with the campaign, bigotgate, and the power of the ‘time for a change’ argument when after 13 years? The answer is simple: because many people made their minds up based on policy, not presentation. The lines in the core script about people taking a second look at Labour and a long, hard look at the Tories have some truth.

For now, though, it’s the waiting game. And perhaps forty winks.

Photo: secretlondon123 2009