Ramsay MacDonald, towards the end of his life, wrote in his diary that he had come to be seen as ‘the embodiment of evil’. The mild-mannered Clement Atlee, who was MacDonald’s PPS in the twenties, called what he did the ‘the greatest betrayal in the political history of this country.’ What MacDonald did, as any student of Labour history can tell you, is join a Tory-led ‘national government’ against the backdrop of a global economic crisis, in the belief it was in the national interest.
MacDonald’s tragic miscalculation nearly destroyed the Labour party. In the 1931 general election, Labour’s vote fell by 1.5 million, and the party gained only 46 seats. The national government’s majority was 500; it soon set about cutting unemployment benefit as the factories, foundries and shipyards continued to close down.
I am in no doubt whatsoever that Nick Clegg will be judged by his party in much the same way as Labour people view MacDonald. His decision to give legitimacy, and a majority, to a Conservative party committed to deep cuts in public spending is an act of craven ambition and deep folly.
The ConDem deal is mostly about positions and titles, cars and offices. Very little is about policy. On the big issues that animate Liberal Democrats, proportional representation being the obvious one, Clegg has totally sold out. It was charmingly naive when Clegg said his new deputy prime ministerial office was ‘near David’s’ in the Cabinet Office. The two buildings are joined by the famous ‘Link Door’, but the Cabinet Office is Siberia to Number 10’s Moscow. Cameron, the first former special adviser to become prime minister, knows full well that in Whitehall titles and offices count for nothing unless you have a departmental budget, staff, and membership of the key cabinet sub-committees where real power is privately exercised. Clegg has come out of four days of negotiations with a handful of magic beans.
You can already get odds on who the first Lib Dem to leave the government will be. My money’s on Vince Cable, who rather enjoys his status as economics sage, guru and clairvoyant. He won’t like ending his career as Vince the Destroyer of cherished local services. Simon Hughes looks like a man planning to cry ‘betrayal’ and become leader of the provisional wing of the Liberal Democrats. Like many Lib Dems whose local political base is built on being anti-Labour, he can see the toxicity of coalition with the Conservative party. If the Bermondsey Labour party hasn’t started distributing leaflets with the picture of Clegg and Cameron on the steps of Number 10, and slogan ‘A Vote for Hughes is a Vote for the Tories’, then they should start this weekend. In the seat where I live, Eastbourne, we have a new Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd, who beat the local Tory MP thanks to votes from Labour supporters. At the count, the Labour candidate said they were ‘on loan’. The loan arrangement lasted roughly four days.
When the applause has died down, the champagne’s gone flat, and the hard slog of government starts, the Lib Dems will flake and split. Lib Dem ministers will walk away from responsibilities of spending cuts. After all, you don’t join the Lib Dems to take responsibility, you do it to protest, complain, and stay ideologically pure. With the normal attrition rate of ministers resigning, being sacked, getting caught abusing their power, or dropping down dead, there won’t be enough Lib Dem MPs to serve as ministers over the proposed five-year parliament. Which means they will be replaced with Tory ministers, and the government will become more overtly what it is – a Conservative government.
In the coming weeks there will be plenty of analysis about where all this leaves the Labour party (not least in this column). The obvious starting point is that Labour is now the only party of the centre-left in politics. Over ten thousand people have joined this week. The Lib Dem sell-out opens a vast space to the left of the government.
Luke Akehurst has produced some figures based on research from the Fabian Society which suggests that:
• 19 Lib Dem seats – a third of their total – would fall to Labour if just one-in-four Lib Dem voters switches to Labour in those constituencies
• 30 Conservative seats would fall to Labour if just one-in-four Lib Dem voters switches to Labour in those constituencies
• 55 Conservative seats would fall to Labour if half of Lib Dem voters switch to Labour in those constituencies. Together with seats taken off the Lib Dems, this could be enough for Labour to regain its majority at the next election
These numbers alone should provide the self-discipline to Labour to stay focussed and aim at a return to government sooner rather than later.
It also kills stone dead the argument that Labour supporters should back Lib Dems ‘tactically’. Ed Balls’s intervention in the week of the poll, suggesting we should turn a blind eye to Labour voters voting Liberal Democrat, was maladroit, and as events showed, totally misguided. That, coupled with his wafer-thin majority, probably rules Ed Balls out as a potential leader of the Labour party.
Compass, the Guardian editorial team, and others such as Peter Hain have some explaining to do to all those people who voted yellow, but got the blues. Far from being ‘the Liberal Moment’, it is the birth of a Conservative government whose leading lights are Iain Duncan Smith, William Hague and Liam Fox.
Now our task is to form an effective opposition in parliament, and an effective campaigning force in the country. Harriet Harman, first elected in 1982, has the depth of experience to see us through this early period. Her appointment of Stephen Twigg as her PPS shows good judgement. Next, she must oversee a thorough NEC-led analysis of the election campaign, and insist on early elections to the shadow cabinet. Ministers appointed by the previous prime minister do not have legitimacy; some, such as Jack Straw, have announced their retirement from frontbench responsibilities. Elections to a new shadow cabinet, including quotas for women, will give us a new team. It allows people who didn’t serve as ministers in the last government such as Jon Cruddas, Stephen Twigg, and several talented new MPs to win the support of their colleagues.
And of course, our weighty task over the summer is to elect a new leader, and potential prime minister.
Losing an election is never a good sign for a political party. In the south east of England we were obliterated, going from nine seats to none. But overall, Labour is in reasonable shape, free from ideological splits and factionalism. I sense a steely determination amongst Labour activists to capitalise on Clegg’s great betrayal, and for Labour to remain the great force for progress that the country so badly needs.
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Paul
Whilst you may be proved correct about the fault-lines in the coalition. Labour cannot simply sit aside and wait for it to inevitably fall apart. The LibDems are not quite so stupid as not to realise that however much they will be savaged for going into the coalition, their fate would be far worse if they brought it down.
They would add to the alienation of the left, the complete fire-power of the right wing press. Bear in mind also that they have to show that coalition government can work, their most cherished target of PR almost hard-wires coalition into the system. If opponents can say ‘See, coalition governments simply do not work in Britain’, their chances of achieving PR are dealt a crushing blow.
Your point on tactical voting is rather ludicrous. Had so many Labour supporters not voted tactically for the LibDems, the result quite simply would have been more Tory MPs – possibly a majority. Whilst of course the labour voters who lent their votes to Nick Clegg will be unhappy, and most likely feel betrayed, they still held the Tories back from gaining a complete mandate.
Unfortunately tactical voting is a symptom of our current electoral system. You should be under no illusion that Labour also benefits from LD/Green supporters switching to defeat the Tories. The coalition makes tactical voting more difficult come the next election, but it will not remove people looking for a way to ensure that their vote is not an empty gesture.
Finally I wouldn’t be so sure that we are free from ideological division. The 13 years in government have kept a lid on many dividing issues; civil liberties, privatisation, trident, even electoral reform. Whilst an all-out war is unlikely, and certainly unhelpful, these issues have to be addressed or we will be in no position to offer a convincing vision for the future of the country.
Good perceptive and insightful piece, Paul.
Actually if you look at history if he is Ramsey-McDonald that would be good news for the Lib-Dems as also remember what happened to the opposition party that stood against the coalition – that was the Liberals who fell apart not to be heard of for 80 years.
“You don’t join the Lib Dems to be responsible”
What a load of rubbish. I presume you’ve never been involved in the Lib Dems otherwise maybe you’d appreciate the responsible decisions their councillors, AMs, MSPs London Assembly members, and MPs have to make on a daily basis.
Much of the article here can be seen to make sense but your flippant comment that a party 7m people voted for is just a noisy pressure group shows you have no idea.
The labour party are NOT PROGRESSIVE. Inequality has gone UP, the rich have got richer, human rights and liberties have been torn up, britain became Bush’s poodle, british soldiers died in an illegal war. Where’s the progress?
You Labour tribalists cannot see how damaging Labour have been. There is NO progressive left voice left any more. Except the crumbling remains of the respect party and the single-issue green party.
“After all, you don’t join the Lib Dems to take responsibility” what a bizarre and arrogant statement. I live in a borough which the Lib Dems have just won for the seventh consecutive time (presumably they like responsibilty). And what was going on when the Lib Dems formed partnership governments in Wales and Scotland. It seems to me you can be a progressive and call for a voting system using proportional representation, but the result must only ever be of one combination. In terms of taking responsibilty my guess is that Labour were only too happy to lose this election because they couldn’t stomach the action that needs to be taken to rectify the reckless spending of the past 13 years. As for Gordon Brown he always seemed to go missing in the Blair years when a crisis turned up, failed as Chancellor to deal with the Banks and personel debt levels, dithered as a Prime Minister and was forced to deal with the financial crisis as it was too late to run away. All these people that have joied Labour this week…after they have lost responsibilty for governing the country.
Yes I am sure there will be tension within a Lib-dem Tory government..presumably the same can be said of any other (progressive) coalition. however one thing is for certain, the old adage of a vote for Lib Dems being a wasted vote has been put to the sword
A further question is what is going on at the Lib Dem grass roots. Both the Lib Dems I know have resigned their membership. If this is representative, how long before the parliamentary Lib Dem party start to worry whether there will be a party in the country left by the next election.
A very good analysis. Paul identifies Ed Balls as a leading culprit in tactcal votingphile but I could add Peter Hain ( ex Liberal). From canvassing hundreds of doors here I can say that even those intending to vote “tactically” were genuinely confused. In fact the call caused mega confusion and appeared to be a desperate call from a loosing Party. It was based on polls which proved to be seriously wrong. The consequences for local party workers is to seriously undermine morale in an already tough environment. One would point to the scores of former part members who have been expelled for supporting our opponents. I have certainly made my viiews on this to the leadership of Compass.
Nice incisive piece. The betrayal of the Lid Dem electorate is compounded by the disconnection of their elected representatives. I well recall Alistair Darling reassuring the country that all would be well for Northern Rock investors, “well” that is clever caveats that presumably the investors were not supposed to notice. Notice they did and the queues to withdraw just got longer. It was only when Alistair gave a definitive “all will be well” did the queues stop. Moral of the story, no matter how clever any politician thinks they are with their carefully fashioned sentences the electorate are somewhat brighter. Cleggs duplicity “in the national interest” will cost his party dear. Who knows Mr Clegg may even be looking for a new safer seat with his new chum Cameroons lot in a few years time. I suspect they would have him.
Prior to the election the comments about tactical voting were perfectly reasonable and sensible. Tactical voting has benefited both Labour and LibDem candidates over the past 20 years, there were a number of Labour MPs who were elected at the GE who wouldnt be there if it wasnt for electors who were inclinded to vote LibDem but decided to vote Labour in their own local circumstances. However Nick Clegg’s behaviour since the election has shown this to be no longer reasonable, vilifying Labour figures for what was a sensible strategy at the time also isnt reasonable.
I agree with Paul that the situation with LibDem ministers is likely to be unsustainable, partly because of the contradictions inherent in the coalition and partly because of pressure from their own party. I think Paul has been somewhat stereotypical in his suggestion – “that you don’t join the Lib Dems to take responsibility, you do it to protest, complain, and stay ideologically pure”. The LibDems have been very successful in local government and have had to make the sort of compromises that being in charge involves. The local government presence is very import to the party and a severe reduction in this element (a significant possibility every May) will lead to huge pressure on the relatively few number of MPs and loosing councillors blame Nick Clegg for their own demise.
Given the scale of the defeat the Labour party is in a relatively good position (certainly compared to us in 1979 and the tories in 1997) and is potentially poised to capitalise on LibDem problems however this will not happen unless the party can understand the reasons for the defeat, learn the lessons, reconnect with the disaffected, run an inclusive leadership campaign and most of all stay focused on the fact that disunited parties dont win power.
I hope your predictions are right. If Cable leaves the coalition there will be ruction’s in the Lib Dems.
Labour center left, when did this happen……
Perceptive stuff Paul.
Supporting the Lib Dems must be a hard place to be right now after all the hard work in the campaign has led to such an unlikely and I believe, untenable, alliance. Fundamental differences will emerge as the real work begins.
10,000 new members for Labour in the last week is excellent news and shows that we have a credible offer. Now is the time to re-build our membership apace, by focusing from the bottom up we will galvanise support as we also build our new approach.
I suggest a focussed new membership campaign, let’s make the most of this enthusiasm to join with targeted offers to potential members – we already know many of them. Perhaps existing members could be encouraged to sign up friends, maybe by offering some small incentives, well organised social events for members help to bring new ideas in less formal settings.
Roll on the Progress conference next weekend!
True, tactical voting works both ways and let’s not forget it. Those who have had experience of Lib Dem politics over the years are not surprised and how quickly the media rubbished any alternative just simply because their Tory friends were back in power. Gordon Brown cleared the way for the so-called ‘Rainbow Coalition’ which for one moment frightened the meejer hacks and they promptly termed such a gesture as ‘cynical.’ It was Ken Clarke who, rightly, identified Clegg as a Tory and Cable as a Social Democrat. With a bit of luck this will see the end of the Lib Dems except in those areas of the country with noticeable levels of political inbreeding.
There is not one Lib/Dem Party – as there is not one Labour Party. Some are very happy to be with the Tories – many are not. What we need to thank the dinamic duo for is bringing class to the forefront of Uk politics. Did anyone else think of the Eton Boating song during the Love in on the Lawn.Kyoto
We can’t escape that people in every poll seemed to say they liked the idea of a coalition and it may not fall apart as quickly as we’d like. When you think most of the Libs don’t stand for very much then they could well hold it together. But likewise there is a really opportunity for Labour to sieze the progressive centre and talk about what we believe in and why again. The coalition buys us time to decide what and who Labour is now for. This should focus on people – education, the economy, environment, services, etc. But we can also talk about how we think politics needs to be run and to what end. If this then includes an amendment to the referendum on AV Bill calling for full PR in local government elections and AV plus with regional top up lists to prevent the reform simply being 1st past the post with hurdles then great. Then we’ll has seized the moral highground and I think the political inititaive for many years to come.