I am probably not alone among Labour supporters in regarding the 2010 election results with a mixture of disappointment, frustration and relief. It is obviously disappointing to lose, and frustrating that the numbers were a whisker short of allowing a Labour-led coalition to have power. But compared to how it might have been, one can regard the results with relief.

Labour lost one contest – to lead the country – to the Conservatives, but won the other one by seeing off the Liberal Democrat threat to beat us in the popular vote. While 29 per cent is not an impressive showing, it was not the destruction that might have been anticipated from Labour’s meltdowns in the 2008 and 2009 local and European elections, and we did not emulate the German SPD’s crash from mid-30s to low 20s that our sister party suffered in 2009. We have 258 Labour MPs, and we had reason to fear falling to 220 or below. Nick Clegg talked boastfully about Labour’s ‘existential crisis’ during the campaign, but post-election it is the LibDems who face the questions about why their campaign failed and what is the purpose of their party.

For Labour, while it would be bizarre to warn against complacency, the questions are of a lesser order. We need to face up to defeat, but not to disaster, and if we break the habit of fighting among ourselves, failing to renew our leadership or adopting policies to make ourselves feel good rather than win over electors (as we have done after defeats in 1951, 1970 and 1979), we can look forward to coming back strongly.

If there is a common thread between the constituencies that will decide the next election it is the West Coast Main Line railway. Sixteen of the top 100 Labour targets are strung along this line between Brent Central and Carlisle (via Rugby, Stafford, Crewe, Warrington and Lancaster), with several more strung along either side in the Midlands in particular in places such as Burton, Warwick & Leamington and Leicestershire North West.

As ever, middle England is the key, and by turning so many suburban, medium-sized town and rural industrial seats in the Midlands blue, the Conservatives were able to establish the clear lead that got them into Downing Street. There is no magic demographic solution for Labour in regaining a majority in parliament, as these seats are a cross section, but clearly recovering the support of the English working class is crucial. While working class support in inner London and Scotland was absolutely firm, it sagged in favour of the Conservatives in the Midlands, to the Lib Dems in some Welsh valleys seats and scattered points like Redcar and Burnley, and to various parties, with some steep drops in the Labour share in ex-coalfield areas (Ed Miliband, notably, seemed exempted from this trend in Doncaster North).

Some other very poor results for Labour came in the marginals that were lost to the Conservatives in 2005, which should be heeded by the party as early as possible. The national swing to the Tories was 5.0 per cent, but in seats which the Tories gained from Labour in 2005 it was 8.2 per cent. If new Tory MPs in the seats they gained from Labour in 2010 over-perform the national swing in a similar fashion, Labour will need a large swing to make any serious gains when the next election comes.

Incumbency and personal support makes a difference, as we saw in the 2010 election when some incumbent Labour MPs, such as Karen Buck and Gisela Stuart, won triumphs against the odds, and others managed to keep the swing improbably low but still lost, such as Phil Hope, Nick Palmer and David Drew. The Tories also managed to unseat some Labour MPs in self-contained towns like Ipswich and Worcester where local profile is important. Future Labour candidates in seats where MPs narrowly lost need to work doubly hard. While incumbency is a fact of life, we need to battle it as best we can by selecting strong candidates early in the parliament, and targeting resources where they are needed.

Labour’s performance against Lib Dem challengers was strong in most key seats in 2010, no doubt to the relief of many anti-Tory small-l liberals. Facing Lib Dem opposition probably encourages the sort of hard work that paid off so well in this election, Emily Thornberry in Islington South & Finsbury being a classic example. But the centre-right Lib Dem campaign in 2010 did worse than the leftwing Lib Dem campaign in 2005 across most university and liberal middle class seats, with good Labour holds in Durham City and Edinburgh South and swings in our favour that brought seats like Cardiff Central and Edinburgh West into range. Even though the Lib Dem alliance with the Tories may help Labour with these areas, we do need to make a decent offer to liberal, reforming opinion on issues like individual rights and constitutional reform.

Two-hundred-and-fifty-eight MPs is a decent foundation for Labour to build upon in the next election, and there are grounds for optimism – provided that the party does not squander it as it did in similar circumstances in 1979-83. Labour’s votes at the Glasgow and London ends of the West Coast railway were magnificent, but we need to worry about some bad results in the middle.

THE WEST COAST MAIN LINE MARGINALS

Brent Central (Labour target 23)
Harrow East (Labour target 53)
Watford (Labour target 62)
Milton Keynes South (Labour target 70)
Milton Keynes North (Labour target 115)*
Rugby (Labour target 96)*
Nuneaton (Labour target 38)*
Warwickshire North (Labour target 1)
Tamworth (Labour target 101)
Cannock Chase (Labour target 51)*
Stafford (Labour target 80)
Crewe & Nantwich (Labour target 87)*
Weaver Vale (Labour target 17)*
Warrington South (Labour target 22)*
South Ribble (Labour target 78)
Lancaster and Fleetwood (Labour target 9)*
Morecambe and Lunesdale (Labour target 14)
Carlisle (Labour target 15)*

* No incumbent in these seats in 2010. This may make these seats easier to regain than the others, where incumbents were defeated