Going into coalition with the Tories is not a strategy likely to increase the popularity of the Lib Dems in Scotland. For voters in England, they may feel that seeing the party participating in government for the first time in several generations, may make them appear a more serious option. However, voters in Scotland are used to seeing the Lib Dems in government, after two terms as Labour’s coalition partners, so any novelty value generated in England, is not likely to spread northwards.
Professor John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University has predicted that the Lib Dems could lose as many as a quarter of their seats in next year’s election, taking them down from 16 to 12. Scottish Labour are seeking to be the beneficiary of Lib Dem losses, writing to 100,000 Lib Dem voters in target seats urging them to change their vote at the Scottish parliament elections.
The effect on the Tory vote is more debatable. On the one hand, the Scottish Tories have come to be viewed almost as an eccentricity, a few bumbling oddballs who are kindly tolerated but receive very little attention. Having the Tories in government at Westminster will remind the electorate of what they really stand for, which, you would reason, would lead to a reduction in their current 17 seats. There is the argument that the Tories may feel revived and revitalised by their, what I believe we’re now calling, ‘non-loss’ in the general election. However, the Tories did so badly in Scotland, despite the swing across the rest of the UK, that they may be close to giving Scotland up as a lost cause.
On the other hand, making gains in the Scottish parliament elections would be a significant prize and validation for David Cameron and his party. He may feel that, with expectations so low, he has nothing to lose, but much to gain, by pushing hard to increase seats and share of the vote in Scotland next year.
It would be foolhardy to assume that a slump in support for the Lib Dems or the Tories next year would automatically benefit Labour.
The SNP have long employed the successful tactic of appearing all things to all people. In the more rural seats, they paint themselves as Tartan Tories, whilst affecting a pose in the central belt of being red in tooth and claw. Hats off to the Nats: to achieve this feat whilst simultaneously being in government belies a gymnastic ability not usually associated with the significant girth of our first minister.
They have in the main achieved this by (a) doing very little and (b) blaming everyone else for anything they possibly can. This lack of achievement or sense of responsibility doesn’t matter, at least to them, because they won’t be running on their record. The SNP will be attempting to portray themselves as Scotland’s protector, whilst using the bitter reality of Tory cuts to stoke support for separation.
The question then is: what will Scottish Labour be running on?
In some ways, we’ll be freer to set our own agenda in this election than at any time since the inception of the Scottish parliament, but what are we going to do with that freedom? We don’t have very long to decide.
Scotland doesn’t like Tories? The problem is in a UK context you may be right but when you have a PR system, then all of a sudden, Scotland likes Tories a bit more – e.g. Scots Parliament and the number of Con MPs there. All the debate on this website about popularity misses the point – you are talking in the context of First-Past-The-Post! No party in the UK, in a generation or two, has ever enjoyed anywhere near like 50+1% of the popular vote. Interestingly the Con-Dems can say this, altho not a single party, yet! We are all arguing about the 10% of voters who tip elections one way or t’other. How different would the debate be if parties had to achieve a geniune majority in a UK context!