It is well known in Whitehall that the trade union with the toughest negotiators and the strongest industrial muscle is not Unison or Unite, but the British Medical Association. The BMA has done over successive health secretaries, and wrung pay deals from them for which Dave Prentis would give his right arm. The GPs are the least ‘public’ part of the public NHS. As the last outpost of opposition to the NHS in 1946, they were enticed into the NHS by being promised that they could carry on as private small businesses, which in effect is what they still are. They refused to become ‘state employees’ in 1946, and they’ve successfully stayed that way. The GPs have resisted attempts since 1948 to get more GP surgeries into poor neighbourhoods. If you are poor in Britain, you get a poorer service from the NHS, with less time spent in consultations, and fewer doctors per head of population, than if you are rich. That’s one reason why the rich live longer, healthier, happier lives than the poor in Britain today. They’ve refused to open in the evenings and at weekends. They earn a lot more (public) money than MPs.

If another network of small businesses, let’s say the federation of newsagents, was about to be handed £80 billion of public money from the treasury, and told to spend it how they liked, there might be a little concern. By announcing that the £80 billion NHS budget is about to be handed to GPs to spend on local health services, and that primary care trusts (PCTs) and strategic health authorities (SHAs) are going to be abolished, health secretary Andrew Lansley is taking a gamble on the healthcare of every NHS patient.
The white paper is out next week. All we have to go on are the pre-launch leaks to the Daily Telegraph. You can tell when the Tories are in charge because the Telegraph get government white papers before parliament does; it’s one of those rules of politics. Not being a senior department of health civil servant, or a hack on the Telegraph, I have not read Lansley’s white paper. It might be there are safeguards and checks and balances. It might be an elegant scheme, carefully worked out in every detail.

All I have to go on is the coalition agreement, the bedrock of this government’s agenda for the next five years.

The agreement states:

‘We will stop the top-down reorganisations of the NHS that have got in the way of patient care.’

If abolishing Primary Care Trusts, Strategic Health Authorities, sacking thousands of staff, and coercing doctors to become NHS commissioners, through an edict from Richmond House, isn’t a ‘top-down reorganisation’ then what is? It’s hardly organic, incremental change driven from the bottom up, is it Mr Lansley?

The coalition agreement then says:

‘The local PCT will act as a champion for patients and commission those residual services that are best undertaken at a wider level, rather than directly by GPs. It will also take responsibility for improving public health for people in their area, working closely with the local authority and other local organisations.’

Yet the trails in the media today suggest that PCTs will be abolished. It’s not a minor point. The PCTs are the central part of the NHS fabric. Their abolition would be NHS reform on a scale unattempted for decades. The NHS just got highly political once again.

Do the Liberal Democrats know that Lansley is trampling all over the agreement? If the Tories can tear it up and do what they like now, imagine how worthless it will be in two or three years’ time.

The document also states: ‘We will renegotiate the GP contract…’. Well, as my former department of health colleague Liz Kendall MP has tweeted this morning ‘good luck with that…’. Andrew Lansley wants doctors to open for more hours, be present in the toughest estates and neighbourhoods, and take on responsibility for £8 billion of NHS spending, on top of their current roles and responsibilities. If you were a BMA negotiator, can you imagine the kind of gold-plated, diamond-encrusted pay deal you would want from the secretary of state? You would walk into those negotiations with all the cards, and not leave until you’d screwed the department of health negotiators to the floor.

Andrew Lansley spent six years in opposition as shadow health secretary cooking up this scheme. He spoke at endless NHS conferences including the BMA. They were probably very nice to him. His relationship in opposition with the healthcare bodies was probably very productive. He’s about to discover that relationships in government are somewhat different. He’s about to enter a whole new world of pain.