Perhaps inevitably, there are signs of strain already. Lib Dem MPs Bob Russell and Mike Hancock received a warm welcome in the Labour lobbies when they rebelled over the VAT rise, as did those who opposed the academies bill this week.
Yet these rebellions are really just the calm before the storm. Disgruntlement over VAT was to be expected – the Lib Dems campaigned specifically against the tax rise they have just put through, and had to listen to their own campaign literature being repeated back to them in the Commons before the vote. The real tests, however, of the coalition’s fortitude won’t come until next year.
May 2011 could be crucial. Colleagues in the press tell me that if you conduct a poll on the favourability of the coalition as a whole, the response is quite positive. The term ‘coalition’ carries warm connotations of working together, playing for the team, and putting past differences to one side for the good of the country. However, if you poll the popularity of the constituent parts of the coalition, it’s not so good, and, for the Lib Dems, it is actually quite bad. Many people believe they have sold their souls for a few seats in government. Probably because it’s true.
For most parties in their position this would be difficult. But for the Lib Dems, a party built on its local government base but with no experience of the sort of collateral damage national incumbency can do, it’s downright awful. When they start to lose vast numbers of local councillors, possibly through defections as well as defeats, the pressure on Nick Clegg will be substantial.
In addition, May 2011 may well see the referendum on AV. I’ve always been an electoral reformer, and I see AV as an improvement on first past the post, but it hardly fills me with giddy excitement. In particular, it doesn’t achieve greater proportionality, and it can still exaggerate modest leads in the share of the vote into enormous parliamentary majorities. From conversations in the tearoom, I’m not the only reformer who feels this way. This lack of enthusiasm amongst genuine advocates of reform, plus the entrenched opposition of nearly every part of the Conservative party, will make victory in a referendum difficult.
If a referendum is held and then lost, the Lib Dem tribe will start to seriously consider what they are getting out of the coalition deal. Without major wins on their policy agenda, their role as a figleaf for the austerity drive looks desperate. Their role in some of the debates during the finance bill has been embarrassing. Danny Alexander is struggling badly in the Commons and looks far less assured than his Conservative deputy, David Gauke. But both Vince Cable and Chris Huhne are believed to have turned the role of chief secretary down, such is the poisoned chalice it represents.
Which brings me to my answer – either one year or five years. If the coalition can get through its first year and the AV referendum, I think it will hold together until the end. If it doesn’t, we’ll have a minority Conservative government and a general election soon after. My betting is that it will actually go the distance, though what sort of the state the Lib Dems (and indeed the country) will be in by then it anyone’s guess.
So the liberals walk out we have an election and we what all vote for New labour or newer labour or what ever re branding these people think will work for them. Labour lost five million voters 400,000 members, why do you think we left or did not vote labour, you were abysmal. I cannot believe you think you lost the election by mistake that people just what? did not bother voting for you because you were bad. I’m disabled I had an email from labour two years ago telling me the government cannot go on paying out money for people to sit at home, a few weeks ago I had an email saying help us fight the welfare reforms they are wrong. what you think we are bloody stupid.
I agree that it will take some time before we can really judge if the coalition will survive the full five years. There is definitely enough of a bond to keep the ConDems together for the foreseeable future. What will test them is when something they couldn’t plan for in the coalition agreement occurs. What will they do then? That is the true test of government, how you deal with what you didn’t see coming. How will the Lib Dems deal with a major European Union or defence issue that arises? There are not that many Lib Dem MPs so it wouldn’t take a large number to cause a split. The threat of a split in the Lib Dems is real but may not prove fatal to the coalition, but is likely to be so to the future prospects of the Lib Dems. Clegg as the next Ramsay MacDonald anyone?
The Lib Dems will split and Clegg and his right wing supporters will be encouraged to join the Tories. They will only need about 20-25 to do this to remain in power. The remaining Lib Dems will fight to keep their party going and cross the floor of the house. Parliament will be back to having one party in power and two parties in opposition. Timescale….. after the loss of the AV vote next May. Watch out for lots of spoilt ballot papers in the AV vote. Low turn out, to close call and no legitimacy for change!
As one who is standing for re-election (if I am not de-selected), on the day of the referendum, I have mixed feelings about it. I do not believe in government by referendum and believe that a vote on wether BSF should have been scrapped, or the proposed VAT rise would have had a higher turnout. I detect no great interest in the question being put by anyone other that politicians.