This follows Arizona’s determination to pass its own immigration law, followed by the justice department’s decision to sue Arizona in order to block this law. This culminated in last week’s ruling in favour of the justice department by an Arizona district court judge.

The judge blocked key provisions of the controversial law that would have made it a crime for undocumented immigrants to work and would have mandated warrantless arrests of all suspected illegals. It would have also required police officers to investigate the immigration status of any individual they suspected of having entered the US illegally and to detain individuals arrested for even minor non-detainable offences if they were without papers.

The ruling has ratcheted up tensions and fired up a debate on the cable channels and in the blogosphere that is bound to affect both policy and politics. Democrats and Republicans alike are cogitating over the impact the debate will have on the November midterm elections and which voters it will galvanise.

Races are already being called on the basis of the immigration debate and its impact. Democrats expect it to help their senate candidates in California, Florida, Illinois and Nevada, most of them states with crucial Latino voting blocs. Republicans envisage an outpouring of support in Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana and Missouri.

Republicans argue that public opinion is on their side, with polls showing that a vast majority of Americans support the Arizona law and oppose the justice department’s decision to take it on. Their framing of the issue suggests that Arizona had no choice but to take matters into its own hands given the administration’s failure to fight illegal immigration. This position is supported by the introduction of Arizona-type bills in 17 other legislatures across the country though only Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah are expected to sign them in to law next year.

Democrats are hoping that a number of factors might make votes gravitate in their favour. They suspect that administration’s decision to challenge the Arizona law, albeit indirectly via the justice department, will drive Hispanic voters towards them. In 2008, Obama won 67 percent of the Latino vote, the hysteria of the cable channels and conservative talk radio combined with a Democrat push for immigration reform might help up this percentage in November.

Some of the more optimist pundits argue that taking on immigration reform would help redraw the entire electoral map by energising the Hispanic vote in the south and thus reversing the Republicans’ hold over the south. The tea leaves are difficult to read on this but whether the southern strategy can be overturned or not, it does seem that putting immigration reform on the front burner can only help the Democrats.

The issue is a divisive one for the Republicans and the heat would be felt. Conservative activists have long opposed immigration reform, even blocking George W Bush’s attempt at reform. At the same time there are many Republicans who fear losing their seats if they lose the Latino vote. Democrats are hoping that this friction between the party and the grassroots might help them.

The political implications are many and yet the immigration issue currently remains a legal one. The Arizona case is expected to end up before the Supreme Court where the principal issue will be one of federal authority versus that of states in making immigration law, the administration’s argument being that federal authority trumps state authority.

Irrespective of the Supreme Court’s ruling, the power of the immigration debate and the need to reform will remain unquestionable. There are an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants who are the mainstay of the workforce in large sectors of the economy. So much so that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed a group that has brought together mayors and CEOs of firms ranging from Boeing and Disney to Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation to lobby Congress for immigration reform.

The real question is whether the Obama administration is interested in trying to harness this power by putting immigration reform on its autumn agenda. If it does it might yet be able to bend political momentum in its favour in time for the midterms.

Photo: ‘David 2007