Despite Labour’s low share of the vote in Wales at the general election in 2010 – just 36 per cent – there were some very bright spots. Winning back Blaenau Gwent was a real shot in the arm and we can be pleased with our results in Ynys Mon (Anglesey) and a string of seats along the M4 and A55, road corridors. With 26 out of 40 Westminster parliamentary seats in Wales, Labour has a good platform for the coming assembly elections in 2011.
Going into the next race, recent opinion polling for ITV Wales shows Labour well ahead in the polls, with the Lib Dems haemorrhaging support, the Conservatives vote holding up and Plaid Cymru on the margins. A Labour majority means ‘winning the double’ in Blaenau Gwent, pressurising the Lib Dems in Cardiff Central, and taking seats back from the Tories – very tough. So, despite this large polling lead, the electoral maths points to ‘hand to hand’ fighting in these and other seats for Labour to gain a slight majority in Cardiff Bay.
This September session in parliament will include Lib-Con proposals to reduce the number of Welsh constituencies down from 40 to 30 – a 25 per cent loss. In England these ‘same size seat’ proposals mean a drop of just 7 per cent. We’ve historically had smaller seats in Wales to cope with our diverse geography and community needs (narrow and deep valleys, massive rural areas). The bottom line is that Wales’s voice will be significantly reduced if this gerrymander is forced through.
Nick Clegg’s decision to have the alternative vote referendum on the same day as the assembly election also needs to be countered. At the 2011 election and referendum we need to say Vote Labour and against this Lib-Con voting fix.
One issue still to be ironed out is the timing of the proposed referendum on extra powers for the assembly. A vote this autumn has been ruled out which leaves just two windows: either early next spring or next autumn. To save money, I can see why some think another second referendum on polling day in May 2011 makes sense, but surely this issue deserves proper consideration outside of partisan politics?
Finally, Labour needs to get work hard in some key areas. At the assembly government and in parliamentary opposition it must do two things.
Cardiff Bay must establish a working relationship with Westminster government and still be part of an effective Labour opposition. That’s quite a tall order, but I’m sure that new leader Carwyn Jones and Peter Hain can do this. We have to deliver for Wales as well as stand up for it. Ex-coalfield and steel constituencies like Blaenau Gwent still have much economic catch-up to do.
Show the value of our policies. At the assembly, successes include the Welsh baccalaureate to complement A levels, but overall investment in education compares poorly with England. I strongly support improved public health initiatives in Wales, particularly reducing alcohol misuse, yet our stroke and ambulance services need boosting. Carwyn Jones knows we need to put consumers of public services to the forefront.
Welsh Labour is going to have to work hard in stay on top of these issues in the year ahead, but we’ve got a good electoral base and plenty of talent and ideas to take the battle to the opposition. Game on.
Yes, traditionally you were over-represented but with assembly you no longer need to be. Scotland went from 72 to 59 MPs in 2005 as a result of the Scottish Parliament. Wales should follow suit. And furthermore, this is not a gerrymander. Labour’s unfair advantage is being removed. In 2005, Labour won 35% and a 2% lead winning an absolute majority. In 2010, the Tories won 36% and a 7% lead but did not win a majority. Is this fair?
this is a con-dem con con to reduce constituencies,why else are the con-dem conmen rushing it through our boundaries were changed in the 70s when rhondda was reduced to just one mp,along with many other s wales valleys,where you have to have a car just to shop,and it can take an hour to drive 4 to 5 miles its not about representation,its about the condems moving the goal posts to suit thier lust for power R G TRUE