Without action to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions, temperature rises of 4-6 °C above pre-industrial levels are possible by the end of the century.

Climate models show that above 2°C, the risks of damaging impacts rise sharply as food production declines, water stress increases markedly, sea level rises and species loss accelerates.

Although Copenhagen did not produce the international deal so much needed, it did result in the accord to which over 100 countries have signed up to. This sets 2°C as the benchmark for global progress with serious negotiations to recommence in Mexico at the end of the year.

For all the formidable difficulties, I am convinced we are on an inevitable path to a low-carbon world. The UK already has a legal requirement to reduce GHG emissions by 80 per cent over 1990 levels by 2050. That will be a very tough call in which energy will have a major role to play.

Many of our existing power stations, which were built in the 1960s and 1970s, will go out of production in the next 10 years. The decisions we make now will have a long-lasting impact over the next 40 years. The challenge for us is to decarbonise our energy infrastructure while keeping the lights on.

Fortunately the UK is well placed thanks to the actions of the last Labour government. A massive construction programme of power generation is taking place alongside our strategy to encourage renewable, new nuclear and fossil fuelled carbon capture and storage.

Taken with the continued importance of our North Sea reserves – even though declining – and expansion of import and storage facilities there is resilience in the system. But we can never be complacent.

Europe as a whole had a recent wake-up call with the Russia/Ukraine gas dispute which pointed up the vulnerability of mainland Europe’s gas supplies. Although the UK gets very little gas from Russia, the impact here was experienced in higher prices. That’s what makes the pursuit of alternative sources of gas so important. It is also a test of the EU’s leadership capacity.

The UK has been very active in encouraging the development of a southern corridor from the Caspian through to Europe. This would draw gas through Turkey, south-east Europe into central Europe.

Despite our active engagement, progress has been slow. Lengthy negotiations between Azerbaijan and Turkey have been one factor. So, too, challenges to ensure enough gas can be sourced to make the project viable. This brings Turkmenistan into consideration as a potential source of supply and possibly, Iraq. The geopolitics of the region are highly dynamic.

As pressing has been the need for private sector investment. The problem, here, is that the current worldwide glut of gas together with the global recession has depressed prices and therefore made the project less attractive at least in the short term. In particular, unconventional gas reserves such as shale gas in north America could provide abundant additional supplies.

But a recent paper from the Centre for European Reform argues that the healthy supply position is temporary and that even if the southern corridor is further delayed, it makes sense to build it both commercially and politically.

Certainly, global gas demands are rising, perhaps 30 per cent by 2030. Also, recent government analysis has shown that gas will have a central place in UK’s energy mix in coming decades – particularly as gas-fired electricity generation will help maintain flexibility as intermittent renewable generation is scaled up.

That suggests that the EU needs to step up to the plate. It has repeatedly stressed its support for the southern corridor. If the community is serious about energy security, and it certainly needs to be, decisive action is now required to make the pipeline a reality.

Photo: cod_gabriel