Of the seats in question that we lost in 2005, the average growth of the Conservative majority was 6912 votes. Let’s call it 7000 to make it easier. If we apply this same swing to the seats we lost this year, then the picture is grim.
Stephen Metcalfe’s majority in Basildon South & Thurrock East would grow to around 12,000 in the seat he took from Angela Smith in May. Harlow, where we lost Bill Rammell, would see a similar increase in majority to around 12,000. In Cardiff North, where Julie Morgan was deposed, the Tory majority would grow to 7,000. In Croydon Central it would rise to 10,000; Battersea
to 13,000; Ealing Central to 11,000.
In this time when voters on the whole agree with the need for cuts, a leader seen as left-lurching and union-backed is not going to halt this increase in majorities. Last week, the Ipsos MORI Political Monitor showed that 57 per cent of people think that this government’s policies will help the country in the long-term and the same percentage said that they think the cuts are necessary. 75 per cent, however, said that cuts should be slower. This seems to fit with Alistair Darling’s deficit reduction plan. Also, at a time when the unions seem increasingly likely to run what will be (as things stand) widely unpopular strikes, it would damage the party to have a leader seen as so close to the unions.
We need organised forces on the ground to ensure that these Tory majorities don’t grow in line with the swing from 2005 to 2010 in the seats we lost. We can learn from David Miliband’s campaign, which trained over 1,000 people in community organising techniques in just four months. As he said at a recent event as part of the Movement for Change: if 1,000 have been trained in just four months, imagine what can be done in four years. At the same event, he said he wants these trained, equipped organisers, ‘Future Leaders’, to be in every community in the country. The signs are promising on that side of things: new leader Ed Miliband committed to carrying on David’s Movement for Change at party conference this week, whilst David said he was committed to developing the project in his resignation letter.
Getting out again on doorsteps and creating more organised forces will be key to this, but Joan Ryan’s article should serve as a stark warning that seats like these could run frighteningly away from us without hard work.