This weekend the streets of France were once again transformed by the eighth day of national demonstrations since September. Opposition to the pensions reform remains fierce, yet momentum is beginning to falter following the bill’s adoption by the National Assembly last week. The bitter reality of defeat is starting to sink in.
The reforms are the latest in a line of controversies whose frequency and intensity have become the hallmark of Nicolas Sarkozy’s presidency. With a poll rating of 29 per cent at the end of October, his popularity is at its lowest since his election in 2007, falling overall by more than 30 per cent. Conversely, with polls consistently approving its opposition to the bill, the Socialist party has a clear advantage. Yet optimism about long-term gains should remain cautious, as the current situation far from sets a clear precedent for victory, with the presidential elections still 18 months away.
Significantly, anti-Sarkozyism, and not coherent support for the Socialists, has been a major factor in the public’s opposition to the reform. Despite his current unpopularity, by May 2012 Sarkozy’s refusal to make any concessions may be reappraised as a determined, statesmanlike resolve to improve a system which was universally acknowledged as needing reform. Indeed, already the idea of any veritable or long-term gain for the Socialists is being questioned, as polls indicate the reform will not affect voters’ intentions in 2012.
To win the presidency, the Socialist party need to succeed in uniting France’s diverse and fractioned left, while appealing to the centre, a task doubly complicated by the two rounds of voting. This familiar balancing act will be at the heart of the selection of the party’s candidate. Martine Aubry has gained in credibility and played a key role in rehabilitating the party since being elected leader in 2008, with an eight per cent increase in the polls that places the Socialists at 41 per cent compared to the governing UMP’s 32 per cent. However, a series of recent polls highlight that whereas the Socialists’ supporters value her commitment to the party’s values, IMF president Dominique Strauss-Kahn, widely anticipated a candidate at the primaries, scores by far the highest (68 per cent) as having the qualities of head of state. Crucially, in a poll of leftwing voters conducted last month, 65 per cent believed ‘DSK’ to be capable of beating Sarkozy in 2012.
Indeed, with his overt populism and nationalism Sarkozy risks alienating the centre vote that Strauss-Kahn may be able to capture. The spectre of the Front National continues to haunt both right and left, after its leader Jean-Marie Le Pen went through to the second round of the presidential elections in 2002. Clear overtures to the far right have precipitated many of the president’s first term controversies, from the government-led debate on national identity last winter to the Roma débâcle, which continues to rumble on. Only this Tuesday the National Assembly passed a government-backed amendment to the 2011 budget ending free state medical aid for illegal immigrants. On the pretext of necessary austerity, the estimation of saving a meagre six million euros over the coming year exposes the true motivation behind the symbolic and long-coveted move for the right of the UMP. Sarkozy and his government are evidently reluctant to break away from their populist trajectory.
It remains that with the primaries for both major parties yet to come, the major issues over which the 2012 election will be fought are yet to crystallise. Although pension reform may not be a decisive factor when the French go to the polls, the Socialists nonetheless have the potential to buck the trend of centre-left defeats.