Politics in the Republic of Ireland is often seen as a two-and-a-half party system, dominated by a centre-left Fianna Fáil and centre-right Fine Gael, with the Irish Labour party a distant third. It’s a simplistic picture, missing the real cleavages between Irish parties. Moreover, the approaching elections, now almost certain to be held in January 2011, seem likely to rock traditional party politics in Ireland to the core. For the first time in the history of the Irish state, a Labour-led government looks not only possible, but likely.

Irish politics has been dominated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael since the Irish civil war, but the differences between the two parties are primarily historical, rather than ideological. Both parties have roots in Sinn Féin, forming when the single party split over support for the Anglo-Irish Treaty in 1921. Sinn Féin deputies who opposed the Treaty developed into Fianna Fáil, while the pro-Treaty side become Clann na nGaedheal – later Fine Gael. Although Fianna Fáil sits in the Alliance for Liberals and Democrats in Europe group in the European parliament, while Fine Gael is part of the centre-right European People’s Party, the parties aren’t traditional liberal and conservative parties. In practice, there are few differences between the two parties’ policy positions; both socially conservative, they tend to veer between centre-left and centre-right policies.

Since the early 1980s, no single party has managed to win enough seats to form a government. Fianna Fáil has held power since 1997, initially propped up by the rightwing Progressive Democrats and several independent deputies, and, since 2007, with the support of the Greens. The Labour party has served in Irish government before as a junior partner, most recently as part of a ‘rainbow coalition’ with Fine Gael and Democratic Left, with which it later merged. Electoral mathematics means that Irish governments can take one of two forms: a Fianna Fáil coalition with small parties and independents, or a Fine Gael and Labour coalition similarly relying on smaller parties.

Labour’s traditional position as the third party has been influenced by the dominance of early state nationalism in Irish politics. Some scholars contest that the failure of Labour (founded in 1912) to contest the 1918 general election, which saw Sinn Féin take the vast majority of Irish seats, meant that the nationalist issue was able to dominate in this formative period of Irish politics, not allowing the growth of a working-class socialist movement. Fianna Fáil, in particular, consistently draws votes from across the class spectrum.

Labour’s chances up to now have also been hampered by the split within the progressive left vote. Ireland’s left political space is occupied not just by Labour, but by the Greens and Sinn Féin, who both have deputies in the 166-seat Dáil, as well as minority parties such as the Socialist party and Socialist Workers’ party.

A number of factors point to the likelihood of a radical political shift in Ireland after this year’s election. Chief among these is the failure of the major parties to address the impact of the recession on Ireland. The economic crisis has made clear that Ireland can no longer offer civil war answers to 21st-century problems. Since June this year, Labour has consistently topped Irish opinion polls as public sympathy shifts against both of the major parties. The current government’s approval rating has been hovering below 20 per cent for well over a year, making the prospect of a Fianna Fáil drubbing at the polls highly likely.

A whole generation of young people is being radicalised by the recent austerity measures. Growing up in the middle of the Celtic Tiger boom, Irish people in their twenties are now facing the harsh reality of unemployment or emigration, after expecting that we would be the first generation to escape it. Over 100,000 young Irish people are expected to leave the country next year. The scale of public protests shows the high levels of political engagement among Irish youth. In particular, a student demonstration some weeks ago attracted over 50,000 protestors – the same number as the recent NUS fees demonstration, in a country with a population less than a tenth of the size. Young people now are three or four generations removed from the civil war and its aftermath, and with every generation, the influence of being a ‘Fianna Fáil family’ or ‘Fine Gael family’ wanes. It’s likely that a high proportion of youth votes will be directed away from the two main parties and towards Labour, or other leftwing parties.

The previous election in 2007 saw a squeeze on smaller parties, which may well have a further impact in bolstering Labour support this time around. 2007 saw Sinn Féin’s vote in the republic nosedive, winning four seats against their target of 10 to 12. Socialist TD Joe Higgins lost his seat, while the rightwing Progressive Democrats, the minority party in the FF-PD governments of 1997-2007, won only two seats and subsequently disbanded.

Public opinion suggests that the upcoming elections may see similar declines in minority party votes. In particular, the Green party may well face the same fate as the Progressive Democrats before them as the junior coalition partner in an unpopular and discredited government. Sinn Féin’s by-election win last week in Donegal South-West was expected, but the party is unlikely to significantly increase its vote share and other parties are publicly expressing reluctance to contemplate entering into coalition with the party. This leaves Labour as the only party of protest against traditional Irish politics with a strong chance of winning enough seats to lead a coalition government.

Labour is planning to run at least one candidate in each of Ireland’s 43 multimember constituencies, and more than one in many. Eamon Gilmore, the party leader, recently said that he expected Labour to pick up more than 50 seats, up from 20 at present. 84 seats will be needed to form a Government, so Labour is likely to be tied to the more conservative Fine Gael as a smaller coalition partner. The party has already ruled out any suggestion of a Labour-Fianna Fáil coalition government. However, the relative sizes of the parties should mean that Labour should have more control over the new government’s political direction.

For psephologists and electoral historians, the 2011 Irish general election is going to be a fascinating study. But for Ireland’s citizens, facing job losses, cuts to unemployment benefit and minimum wages and the spectre of emigration, it will be so much more. A Labour-led government will face the daunting task of turning around Ireland’s tanking economy, but the increasing prominence of Labour in Irish politics demonstrates that more and more voters see the party’s progressive left policies as a credible and welcome alternative to the dominant parties.

Photo: Irish Labour Party