Labour had a good win in Oldham, but it needs to avoid drawing the wrong lessons, says Robert Philpot
Labour’s victory in Oldham East and Saddleworth provided a much-welcome tonic for Ed Miliband as his leadership of the party passed the 100-day mark. But new MP Debbie Abrahams’ win carries the risk of lulling the party into a false sense of security after its annus horribilis of 2010.
It’s true that Oldham East and Saddleworth is by no means a ‘traditional’ Labour seat. Even during the early Blair years, when the party was sweeping all before it electorally, Labour never polled more than 42 per cent of the vote in the seat. And, yes, Labour’s opinion poll lead is now looking decidedly comfortable.
2011 will, furthermore, see other big gains for the party in May’s local elections and the Welsh assembly and Scottish parliament elections – contests which were all last fought in 2007 during the difficult closing days of Tony Blair’s premiership.
But the likely outcome of these elections, together with a poll lead which is sure to grow as the full impact of public spending cuts and tax increases begin to bite, could end up disguising the scale of the challenge Labour faces if it’s to have a shot at returning to power in four years’ time.
The party’s parlous state in some parts of the country was highlighted by Joan Ryan in her piece in October’s Progress on the ‘hidden landslide’ which occurred last May in the seats Labour lost in 2005. History is not on Labour’s side, either: in every postwar election when the party has been ejected from office, its share of the vote has fallen in the following election.
The experience of the 1980s is perhaps worth recalling here. During that time, Labour repeatedly built up strong poll leads, celebrated handsome midterm local election victories, and racked up some impressive by-election wins before crashing to defeat in the subsequent general election.
Indeed, the eight-point poll lead Labour surged to in mid-January is identical to that Labour had in January 1980. Despite the internal ructions it underwent during Margaret Thatcher’s first term, Labour managed to win by-election victories in seats like Birmingham Northfield and Darlington – both fought in the months after the Tories’ Falklands-inspired poll recovery – only to lose them at the following general election.
Labour’s current opinion poll lead is also not as impressive as the headline figures suggest. Most critically of all, although the number of people disapproving of the government’s handling of the economy is rising, the Tories still lead comfortably when people are asked to compare them with Labour on this issue.
So where does this leave Miliband as he contemplates his party’s prospects this year? Ephemeral by-election gains, midterm contests and opinion poll leads may cheer the party, but they don’t win elections. Instead, his critical challenge is to restore Labour’s reputation for economic competence. That means not simply relying on the government’s reputation to sink but embarking on a repair job which is just as radical and far reaching as that which occurred in the mid-1990s. Does Miliband understand this? The shadow cabinet’s decision to endorse his strategy of admitting that Labour erred in government by not facing up to the need to talk about cuts is a start. But it is just a start and the ultimate fate of his leadership – whether he joins the very small collection of Labour Opposition leaders who make it to No 10 – will be decided by the degree to which he recognises that.
Robert Philpot is director of Progress