For those of us whose lives are lived by the election cycle they are a wonderful giddy little thrill between the big shows. For those in the politico-industrial complex, the hacks, the strategists, the journalists and the elected who understand the world as a place where politics happens and not much else, we can reassert our continuing relevance and explain to each other and the deeply uninterested public exactly what this small result, decided by a handful of swinging voters means. I mean capital M ‘means’, especially for that government. Oh how Nick ‘n’ Dave must be trembling! A Labour seat stayed Labour! Ha! Cop that chap! 2015 is around the corner and then it is on! We’re back!
The real victory for Labour here is that Debbie Abrahams, a very accomplished woman who comes from the moderate wing of the party will make a welcome addition to the benches. It also gave Ed a brief platform and some clear air to lay into the Tories and the extremely poor performance of the Liberal Democrats also turns up the heat on Clegg, something we can all enjoy. The further victory was to see hard working Labour activists buoyed and cheery, a welcome relief.
What does this result point to for 2015? Almost certainly very, very little, perhaps nothing at all. Sadly, the reality is that by-elections mean about as much in the electoral cycle as the colour of the tie Ed wore yesterday, maybe slightly less. True, if during the next election, we can turn the entire shadow cabinet, most of London and Manchester Labour members and buckets of money out in a sustained manner in every marginal seat over a matter of weeks simultaneously, then we’re set. Failing that option, we should probably take a more sober look at what happened in Oldham.
The results of a by-election are, by definition, anomalous, otherwise we’d just call it an election. They are usually held under a depressing cloud, often someone has died, resigned in disgrace or in this case, been sued then sacked. I always feel really sorry for by-election voters; most people don’t really like politicians very much, and for two weeks they get their door knocked on about every 20 minutes and have to make polite conversation with Ed off the telly and then with a Guardian reporter keen for their take, all while their dinner goes cold. They have to hide from David Cameron in the Post Office and dodge a Sky journalist who is clearly desperate for a national figure to call them a bigot. We worry about turnout? We’re lucky they don’t chase us away with pitchforks. The point I am, rather floridly, making is that by-elections are not normal, the results are incredibly skewed.
For parties by-elections are also off-strategy. Of course voters are angry and keen to lash out at the government about the cuts. We delude ourselves if we think the Tories hadn’t planned for that. David Cameron has a plan to win in 2015, which is still quite a way off yet. The government appreciates that at this point in the cycle people will be furious at the cuts – they knew that going in. Their plan is clearly to keep making Labour wear the pain for these cuts and present them as unavoidable, taking voters from anger to grudging acceptance. David Cameron’s plan is to win in May 2015 – losing a seat he didn’t hold in January 2011 is hardly a blow and certainly presents no great need to change strategy.
Ed’s job remains to fight for our economic credibility and fight the Tories where possible. A by-election win is a happy thing and gives him some breathing room and space to strike, but it shouldn’t cause any of us to underestimate how long and hard the road to victory in 2015 remains.