In response to Ed Miliband’s questioning, he exclaimed ‘I now have the figures for the Flexible New Deal, which was the absolute centrepiece of the last government’s approach to this matter. Let me give the House of Commons the figures, because I think that they show what has been going wrong. Of the 279,000 people who took part in the Flexible New Deal, how many got a long-term job? The answer is 3,800. It is not good enough.’ The Spectator has further reinforced this claim. However, this is a complete misinterpretation of the government’s own figures and data.
The 279,000 number refers to the aggregate total of all individuals who have gone through the FND since its inception in October 2009 (Cameron used some slightly out-of-date numbers – hence the difference below with the latest figures). The figure for the number of successful long-term claimants he used only accounts for what appear to be a single month, not for the duration of the programme. The latest figures (released by the DWP yesterday) actually show a much stronger sustainable job outcome picture for the FND.
The latest DWP FND performance figures (period October 2009 – November 2010):
Total number of starts: 329, 410
Short-term job outcomes: 31, 870
Sustained job outcomes: 13, 970
This is clearly a different picture of the FND to the one put forward by Cameron. It should be noted these numbers still underestimate the level of sustainable job outcomes. There is a time-lag factor at the start of the contract meaning the first short-term job outcomes were not claimed until January 2010 and the first sustained jobs were not secured until April. Customers who have entered employment, but not reached the 13- or 26-week marks, are excluded from the data set. As a result, the number of short- and long-term job outcomes is expected to be considerably higher than it actually appears. A better indication of the performance of FND programmes, would be to take a look at the number for the latest month (where the above highlighted factors are largely discounted). The figures from November show:
Total number of starts: 14,230
Short-term job outcomes: 4,240
Sustained job outcomes: 3,370
In percentage terms, that means there was a 29.8 per cent successful short-term job outcome rate and a 23.7 per cent long-term sustainable job outcome rate. No wonder why Cameron felt the need to get creative and loose with his FND figures.
Read Tom Bage‘s excellent sketch of yesterday’s PMQs – who was missing the wood for the trees? and Callum Munro‘s review of the blows exchanged, including his nomination for best backbencher
A flagship £760m scheme which paid private sector firms to slash the number of incapacity benefit claimants has failed, MPs warned last night. Capacity for change: MPs ruled ‘carrots’ were less effective than ‘sticks’ in getting claimants back to work. The Commons public accounts committee delivered a devastating verdict on the existing Pathways to Work programme, saying the use of private firms had ‘universally failed’. That is a blow to Tory Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, whose plans for welfare reform involve using private contractors to get people back into work in a similar way. The report also provides fresh ammunition for Chancellor George Osborne, who is locked in a bitter battle with Mr Duncan Smith over the cost of welfare reform. Mr Duncan Smith wants to plough billions into setting up a new ‘Work Programme’ which will see private sector firms offered financial incentives to get the unemployed back into work. He believes the move will reap long-term savings for the taxpayer despite initial up-front costs. But the Treasury is sceptical that the scheme will work and wants to find other ways to slash the vast benefits bill. Last week the Chancellor announced, apparently without informing Mr Duncan Smith, that he had identified a further £4bn of savings in the welfare budget. OK I’ve been on the New Deal, Pathways to work and now work fare. I’ve done training program and have done some hilarious courses on how to look somebody in the eyes not bad from a wheelchair. I’ve filled in nearly 1,678 job application and had three replies for an interview, but once they saw the wheelchair I was told sorry we cannot use you. I now have been told to Wait until the new rules come in and my local Job center have stated I’ve done everything possible to work or find a job, sadly they said with so many fit people well it’s difficult. And also with the vast majority of jobs the companies say you must pass a medical, how the hell can I pass a medical for god sake.
OK so they are going to call ‘cuts’ ‘rebalancing’ instead ( so , they are going to use game theory ; a paradigm from investment banking ,except it’s peoples lives they are playing with here,something they simply have not factored in to their ” decision variables”! And anyway ‘rebalancing’ just sounds like moving money around not TAKING IT AWAY !