
Even then, the predictions by the Office for Budget Responsibility for the next couple of years are extremely heroic. A 1.7 per cent rise for 2011 and 2.5 per cent next year is, at best, highly optimistic. After all, we only have to look at the failure of the last 10 months. A 1.1 per cent increase in Quarter 2 followed by a 0.6 per cent rise in Quarter 3 as Labour’s stimulus measures had their final effect before the economy contracted by 0.6 per cent in Quarter 4.
This was pre-advertised by the Tories as ‘the growth budget’. The reality, although of course he wouldn’t admit it, is that Osborne’s economic strategy is shaping up to be a shambolic failure’. He has failed to generate growth and he has failed to cut the deficit. He has, however, succeeded in getting Britain’s youth unemployment rate to its highest level since official records began; the highest inflation levels in 20 years and consumer confidence at its lowest level since the height of the financial crisis. Nice work, George.
There wasn’t much to be surprised by in Osborne’s second budget apart from the cancellation of the fuel duty escalator for the rest of the Parliament. The other tit-bits that he gave out, such as the £630 increase to the income tax threshold from April 2012 and proposals to claw back £1bn in tax avoidance had already been announced to the media. Instead of providing a real incentive for first-time buyers to get their foot on the property ladder, such as through raising the stamp duty thresholds, Osborne instead announced a measly £250m fund to help just 10,000 first-time buyers purchase newly built flats and houses. It’s a time honoured tradition that Chancellor’s carefully leak the best bits of their budget in the run-up to Budget day itself – the striking thing this time was how little good news Osborne had to offer.
His failure to have reduced borrowing is particularly striking. Last June, Osborne stated that Britain’s deficit was £158bn – a figure that overestimated the level of Britain’s debt by around £10bn. Today Osborne claimed that Britain’s deficit would be £146bn for 2011. In other words, Osborne will have slashed thousands of jobs and made massive frontloaded spending cuts and yet failed to reduce the deficit by more than a tiny fraction if at all.
Another point which Osborne skipped over neatly was inflation. The sad truth is that the bad old days of high inflation have come back. Although the spike in oil prices is not his fault, the effect of the VAT rise is. With the Retail Price Index hitting 5.5 per cent in February, the increase to the personal allowance will be entirely offset by rising utility bills, fuel prices, and food and clothing costs. Inflation that is more than twice as high as average pay rises has grave implications for most Britons, particularly those working in the public sector who are subject to pay freezes.
So what else was there of any note? Again, conspicuous by its absence was any reform of the financial sector. No financial transaction tax and no reintroduction of the ‘bonus tax’ proposed by Labour that raised £3.5bn last year. Corporation tax cut by 2 per cent to 26 per cent – now one of the lowest rates in the EU – the main beneficiary of which will be financial institutions. The message from this Tory-led government remains the same: the massive costs caused by the financial sector will be paid for by blameless taxpayers.
As to what this budget means for the UK economy and Britons, the answer is that the future is bleak. If consumer spending declines further (and there is ample evidence that people are keeping their spending as low as possible) then the Treasury’s growth forecasts will have to be downgraded again. With the OECD having just revised its forecasts for 2011 growth down to 1.5 per cent, and inflation likely to stay much higher than earnings for the foreseeable future, it seems pretty clear that if Osborne’s implacable commitment to an aggressive fiscal consolidation will lead to a very tough and painful year. Most people in Britain, particularly those on medium and low incomes will be much poorer.
This then is the message of Osborne’s budget. Brutal and unnecessary austerity measures drive down consumer confidence, weaken growth, increase unemployment and decimate public services. Some misguided pundits have portrayed Osborne as a future prime minister. Based on his handling of the economy he should be at the end of the dole queues he is creating.
It’s great to be in opposition you can moan about the other side without having to tell people what you would have done. But do not forget the people are blaming labour for this mess not the Tories, yes I’m sure the Tories will get a lot wrong, but I suspect so would newer labour. but they have four years to put it right, you had 13 years to mess it up
Sorry Robert but I thought banks had something to do with the financial crisis or are you blaming the Labour government for the same crisis in the USA, Greece, Spain, Potugal, Ireland, Italy and Germany ? I also seem to recollect that the relaxation of the trading rules were at the forfront of a certain Mrs Thatcher’s policy !
Are you saying labour had sod all to do with this crises, they were in power, they removed the safe guards, anyone really saying Governments really did not know what was going on, because if your are then god help us all