The elections to the Welsh assembly and Scottish parliament
are as close to a mirror image as it is possible to get, with triumph in the
case of the former, and disaster for Labour in the case of the latter. One
effect of devolution should be a diminution of the extent to which politics is
viewed simply through the prism of Westminster, so it is important not to
over-emphasise the lessons of the elections in Wales and Scotland for UK
politics as a whole. Nonetheless, victories for Labour in seats like Cardiff
North, which was lost to the Tories in the general election last year, and
Cardiff Central, which the Liberal Democrats seized in 2005, symbolise the
challenge for the party nationally. In Scotland, about which much more will be
said, the dangers of an overreliance on the supposed weaknesses of one’s
opponents has been graphically demonstrated.

In England, the challenge for Labour was two-fold: to
reverse some of its disastrous performances in local government elections in
recent years and to begin to re-establish itself as a truly national party once
again by putting down roots in the south.

Set against these tests, Labour has made moderate but
important progress. Its projected share of the vote at 37 per cent is not only eight
per cent higher than at last year’s general election, but its best since 1999
for these particular seats. Labour’s 700-plus gains effectively wipe out the
losses sustained during Gordon Brown’s premiership, and are the most it has
made in any set of local elections since Margaret Thatcher came to power in
1979, save for 1981 and 1995, during the first year of Tony Blair’s leadership.

In the northern English cities, Labour’s victories against
the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield, Hull and Newcastle have undone the
humiliations it suffered during its time in government, while it’s
extraordinary performance in Manchester underlines what can be achieved by a
popular, progressive, well-led local authority.

But victories in these cities – though hugely important to
those who live in them – are a poor indicator of the degree of progress Labour
is making towards returning to government. What, then, of those critical new,
commuter and industrial towns in the south and Midlands?

Here the party’s performance was more mixed. There were gains
against the Tories in places as diverse as Gravesham, North Warwickshire,
Thanet, Telford and Wrekin, and Exeter.

Elsewhere, and despite strong local campaigning, the picture
is more disappointing for Labour. In Medway, home to a clutch of Kent marginals,
Labour made gains, but so too did the Tories who remained firmly in control. In
the Essex new towns, Labour again made modest progress, but the Tories retained
their hold on Basildon.

And, at this point, we should pay tribute to the London
Labour party’s activists (and the participants in Progress’ own campaign days) who
surged out of the capital, where there were no elections this year, to assist
members in Gravesham, Thurrock and Dover. Their assistance underlines the need
for the development of a strategy, akin to Operation Toehold of the mid-1990s,
over the next two years to ensure that the energy of the London party is
captured and channelled where it can most be of assistance to Labour in the
south on the next occasion when the capital isn’t at the polls in 2013. This
will be the year, furthermore, when the English counties are up for election –
in none of which Labour currently has outright control.

The challenge for Progress’ Third Place First campaign in
those seats which were held by Labour at some point during its time in
government and in which it is now in third place was also underlined by the
results. In Castle Point, the party still has no councillors; in Dacorum, which
contains the parliamentary seat of Hemel Hempstead, Labour lost one of its
three seats; while the party made no gains in St Albans and only two in Liberal
Democrat-controlled Watford.

Watford was indeed one of the few bright spots for the
Liberal Democrats on an otherwise bleak night for Nick Clegg. But while the
party’s heavy losses – its worst in a generation by some counts – were widely
predicted, the Tories’ relatively strong performance was not. Instead of losing
councils and councillors, they made small gains. The party’s share of the vote,
just behind that of Labour, bears out the opinion polls’ suggestion that those
who backed Cameron last May are still largely sticking with him.

It also suggests that those who approve of the government’s
performance are rewarding the Tories, while those who disapprove are punishing
the Liberal Democrats. But this happy state of affairs for Cameron should give
Labour’s leader pause for thought, too. It is only by driving the Tory vote
down and winning over those who have backed the party in the past, that Miliband
will get to No 10 in four year’s time.

There is one final note of caution that should be sounded at
this point. At opposite ends of the UK, in Scotland and on the southern English
coast in Brighton and Hove where the Green party made spectacular gains to
become the council’s largest party, where voters who didn’t want to back the
coalition parties had a range of alternatives, their first choice was not
always Labour. Ed Miliband has cause to celebrate today, but this dilemma –
which the likely loss of the AV referendum this evening will do nothing to
solve – should also give him plenty to think about.