The elections to the Welsh assembly and Scottish parliament are as close to a mirror image as it is possible to get, with triumph in the case of the former, and disaster for Labour in the case of the latter. One effect of devolution should be a diminution of the extent to which politics is viewed simply through the prism of Westminster, so it is important not to over-emphasise the lessons of the elections in Wales and Scotland for UK politics as a whole. Nonetheless, victories for Labour in seats like Cardiff North, which was lost to the Tories in the general election last year, and Cardiff Central, which the Liberal Democrats seized in 2005, symbolise the challenge for the party nationally. In Scotland, about which much more will be said, the dangers of an overreliance on the supposed weaknesses of one’s opponents has been graphically demonstrated.
In England, the challenge for Labour was two-fold: to reverse some of its disastrous performances in local government elections in recent years and to begin to re-establish itself as a truly national party once again by putting down roots in the south.
Set against these tests, Labour has made moderate but important progress. Its projected share of the vote at 37 per cent is not only eight per cent higher than at last year’s general election, but its best since 1999 for these particular seats. Labour’s 700-plus gains effectively wipe out the losses sustained during Gordon Brown’s premiership, and are the most it has made in any set of local elections since Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979, save for 1981 and 1995, during the first year of Tony Blair’s leadership.
In the northern English cities, Labour’s victories against the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield, Hull and Newcastle have undone the humiliations it suffered during its time in government, while it’s extraordinary performance in Manchester underlines what can be achieved by a popular, progressive, well-led local authority.
But victories in these cities – though hugely important to those who live in them – are a poor indicator of the degree of progress Labour is making towards returning to government. What, then, of those critical new, commuter and industrial towns in the south and Midlands?
Here the party’s performance was more mixed. There were gains against the Tories in places as diverse as Gravesham, North Warwickshire, Thanet, Telford and Wrekin, and Exeter.
Elsewhere, and despite strong local campaigning, the picture is more disappointing for Labour. In Medway, home to a clutch of Kent marginals, Labour made gains, but so too did the Tories who remained firmly in control. In the Essex new towns, Labour again made modest progress, but the Tories retained their hold on Basildon.
And, at this point, we should pay tribute to the London Labour party’s activists (and the participants in Progress’ own campaign days) who surged out of the capital, where there were no elections this year, to assist members in Gravesham, Thurrock and Dover. Their assistance underlines the need for the development of a strategy, akin to Operation Toehold of the mid-1990s, over the next two years to ensure that the energy of the London party is captured and channelled where it can most be of assistance to Labour in the south on the next occasion when the capital isn’t at the polls in 2013. This will be the year, furthermore, when the English counties are up for election – in none of which Labour currently has outright control.
The challenge for Progress’ Third Place First campaign in those seats which were held by Labour at some point during its time in government and in which it is now in third place was also underlined by the results. In Castle Point, the party still has no councillors; in Dacorum, which contains the parliamentary seat of Hemel Hempstead, Labour lost one of its three seats; while the party made no gains in St Albans and only two in Liberal Democrat-controlled Watford.
Watford was indeed one of the few bright spots for the Liberal Democrats on an otherwise bleak night for Nick Clegg. But while the party’s heavy losses – its worst in a generation by some counts – were widely predicted, the Tories’ relatively strong performance was not. Instead of losing councils and councillors, they made small gains. The party’s share of the vote, just behind that of Labour, bears out the opinion polls’ suggestion that those who backed Cameron last May are still largely sticking with him.
It also suggests that those who approve of the government’s performance are rewarding the Tories, while those who disapprove are punishing the Liberal Democrats. But this happy state of affairs for Cameron should give Labour’s leader pause for thought, too. It is only by driving the Tory vote down and winning over those who have backed the party in the past, that Miliband will get to No 10 in four year’s time.
There is one final note of caution that should be sounded at this point. At opposite ends of the UK, in Scotland and on the southern English coast in Brighton and Hove where the Green party made spectacular gains to become the council’s largest party, where voters who didn’t want to back the coalition parties had a range of alternatives, their first choice was not always Labour. Ed Miliband has cause to celebrate today, but this dilemma – which the likely loss of the AV referendum this evening will do nothing to solve – should also give him plenty to think about.