This is the clear result of a round of local elections, which took place last weekend and interested more than 14 millions of voters.
In Italy it is never easy to declare winners and losers in such a big round of local elections: usually any party can claim some gains, or at least can claim the holding of some significant towns, even when confronted by heavy losses somewhere else.
But this time it was quite different, especially because, along with many provinces and local authorities, four major cities – Turin, Milan, Bologna and Naples – were called to elect directly their mayor. Each of them has a very different political tradition and has had different administrations in recent years, but Berlusconi, in a desperate attempt to gain some votes, transformed the elections in those four cities, and in particular in his native Milan, into a referendum on his person and his government.
The result was a neat defeat, a blow in the nose of the man who, since yesterday, claimed to be still ahead in the opinion polls, despite being involved in sexual scandals and being under trial for various allegations.
The phoney opinion polls commissioned by Berlusconi have been proven wrong, and for the first time in many years Berlusconi seems to be out of touch with his traditional electorate. Even Milan, economic capital of Italy and one of the strongholds of the centre-right, has sent a clear message to King Silvio, forcing the incumbent mayor, Letizia Moratti (a former Berlusconi minister) to a humiliating second ballot. In the city where the Northern League was born, and where the party of Berlusconi has been in power continuously for the last 15 years, Mrs Moratti is now the underdog, with 42 per cent of the vote against the 48 per cent of her centre-left counterpart, Giuliano Pisapia.
The Democratic party’s candidates managed to hold both Turin and Bologna with more than 50 per cent at the first ballot, while only in Naples is the centre-right ahead at the first round, though the centre-left parties were divided and could still win the second ballot.
The result has already started to impact on the precarious government, with the Northern League, which draws little advantage from the electoral downfall of Berlusconi, already questioning the leadership and the strategy of the prime minister. In two weeks, after the second ballot, we will see more quarrels and arguments, especially if the result in Milan is going to be a victory for the centre-left.
If it is clear that centre-right voters have turned their back on Berlusconi and his government allies, but the situation on the opposition side is still a bit blurry. The centre moderate coalition, formed by defectors of both centre-right and centre-left, as an alternative to the bipolar system, has not taken off, while the Democratic party’s victory is more a result of disaffection towards Berlusconi than a real gain of electoral consensus. Though reaching an unexpected 48 per cent of the vote, in Milan Giuliano Pisapia has not increased the number of votes since the last elections, clearly showing that there has not been a big swing toward the left, only a major abstention in the centre-right. Will the centre left be able at the second ballot to attract the votes of these disenchanted Berlusconi followers?
If, in two weeks time, in Milan and Naples, this trend is confirmed, and the centre-left is able to win over disappointed voters, then we may call the end of Berlusconi and the beginning of a new era in Italian politics.