Now, as the details of the accusations emerge and the latest decisions from New York paint an ever-bleaker picture for Strauss-Kahn, disbelief is slowly giving way to a reality that has left the country’s political elite in a state of shock.

The Socialists are the first to be thrown into disarray. For over a year, DSK has been touted as most likely to win the party’s presidential candidacy and, more broadly, the favourite in most opinion polls to beat Sarkozy in 2012. At just under a year from the elections, the absence of such a heavyweight has recast the die for the party’s remaining frontrunners.

The left of the party, quietly relieved about the virtual impossibility of Strauss-Kahn’s candidacy, welcome the consequent likelihood of leader Martine Aubry’s presence at the primaries in October. Most likely to gain from the new balance of power is François Hollande, comfortably set to capture the centre vote that DSK attracts. Nonetheless, it is far from sure that the lesser-known Hollande will be entirely capable of filling the vacuum created by the absence of the reputed statesman.

Indeed, the implications of the scandal are significant outside the Socialist party itself. The centrists, who have recently broken ties with Sarkozy’s UMP, are quietly upholding the presumption of innocence. However, if the top figures have stayed on message, aides have been less guarded in expressing their triumphant disbelief.

As for Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP, general secretary Jean-François Copé has, like his counterparts at the centre, called for reserve. However, in this party, which is large and heterogenous and where dissent is harder to avoid, a number of eminent figures have vocally condemned DSK. Conversely, one UMP MP has caused a stir, insisting the only explanation to be a plot against Strauss-Kahn. Nonetheless, however divergent the rhetoric, the party is undoubtedly relieved that the greatest threat to Sarkozy’s occupancy of the Élysée has been so swiftly removed from the running.

However, ‘le président bling-bling’ could yet suffer from belonging, like Strauss-Kahn, to the luxuriant, flamboyant upper swathes of the political class. Indeed, the freshly elected leader of the Front National Marine Le Pen has been quick to react with predictably populist rhetoric that vehemently criticises DSK as a member of the political elite. As Le Pen is increasingly legitimised by greater media coverage, this discourse has the potential to find a powerful resonance with a frustrated and betrayed electorate.

As the political landscape is altered by the affaire DSK, each party and possible candidate searches how best to react in the run-up to 2012. So great has the weight of expectations around Strauss-Kahn been that his potential candidature has long dominated not only the Socialists’ internal politics but also the strategies of rival parties. Thus, while the Socialist party tries to remain united in this unprecedented crisis, so they and the other parties are playing a balancing act between keeping a critical distance from the potentially toxic DSK without prematurely condemning him. As the new dynamics between the frontrunners become clearer, the winners and losers from the fallout are beginning to crystallise. Yet until Strauss-Kahn is conclusively cleared or convicted, uncertainty and speculation will prevail. With almost year to go until the elections, the Socialists have time to recover. Whether this will translate into the symbolic victory sought by Europe’s left is however far from certain. 

Photo: parti socialiste