Unseating Obama is a desperately tall order for the entire Republican field; their hopes depend almost entirely on outside events. An economic crisis in the next year could, in theory, create a viable electoral map for Republicans, particularly those whose brand is strong on matters of job-creation or finance – Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, for starters, or even Jon Huntsman if he should somehow win the nomination.
As for Michele Bachmann, her odds are even longer, but not beyond reason if the economy really falls apart; Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi described this scenario best, saying that ‘Michele Bachmann has found the flaw in the American Death Star’ (though the thought of the Force being strong with Bachmann, of all people, is too awful to contemplate).
Not so with Palin. The scale of the public catastrophe required to give her a chance to win the presidency would mean that there was no presidency to win – worse than the sundering of the Republic itself, on par with a Biblical plague. As of this week, Palin trails Obama by six points. In Alaska. Her home state. Of such numbers is crushing, laughable defeat made.
The truth about Palin is that she has a small group of extremely devoted fans and struggles to widen her appeal even among Republicans, which, on face, is strange – her conservative credentials are strong. The problem isn’t really her politics (at least among Republicans); it’s her.
John Heilemann and Mark Halperin’s book Game Change describes a focus group conducted by the Obama campaign in the late summer of 2008. One woman in the focus group identified as a Christian conservative, and voiced displeasure that Obama was not born in the US, is a closet Muslim, etc, essentially running through the list of rightwing talk-radio conspiracy theories, but ended by grudgingly declaring her intention to vote for him. When pressed for explanation, she responded, ‘because if he loses, that woman might become president.’
If Palin has this effect on Republicans, it is impossible to conceive of her winning the general election, and almost as unthinkable that she should win the nomination. She has no taste for the hard graft and focus required to campaign, and a candidacy would, in theory, restrict both her and her family’s ability to self-promote with reckless abandon.
Part of the reason she can still command speaking gigs and generate attention for bus tours (even ones she cancels halfway through, an emerging theme in her professional life) is that she is still seen as a potential political player, a media performer who might some day have a position of real power. A run and a (likely disastrous) loss turns her from a potential power into a has-been, a two-time loser, squandering her marketability.
But just because there is no good reason for Sarah Palin to run for president that does not mean she won’t. For years Palin has made decisions that no professional staffer would have suggested or permitted, leading one to believe that she is either advised by fools or simply takes no advice. No doubt the truth is somewhere in between. She may very well be motivated by the mistaken belief that she could win, jealousy at other Republicans getting all the attention, or reasons clear only to her, and decide to run in contravention of all sense.
What would happen if she did? The biggest loser would likely be Bachmann. They share a similar Tea Party, social conservative, anti-establishment base; the prospect of this vote splintering could be enough to tempt Romney back to Iowa, although it would more likely simply mean a lower victory margin for Bachmann. Either way, Bachmann would leave Iowa without a big victory, lose New Hampshire badly, and enter South Carolina with her base still fractured – all good news for Romney.
Palin’s biggest disruption would likely be to the tenor of the debate. Since Bachmann seems determined to tackle this challenge like a professional, the Republican field lacks the cabaret feel that characterised the 2008 primary. Palin could liven things up a bit; she is incapable of maintaining any kind of message discipline, and only a superheroic effort by John McCain’s staff saw her through one debate with Joe Biden in 2008 without serious incident.
This time, there are hundreds of events, no running-mate’s staff to contain her, and a fearsome need to do something dramatic to distinguish herself from Bachmann and other Tea Party-types like Herman Cain. It’s a heady brew indeed; American progressives can only hope she decides to pick up the cup.
This is an article? You (Progressives) are trying to force Palin not to run, using constant “articles” like this to “hurt her numbers”, and scare away “independents”. Etc. Why? Because YOU ARE SCARED OF HER WORKING CLASS ROOTS and know she can WIN and set back “progressivism” for DECADES. Nice try.
OMG What a bunch of dribble!!! If the economy falls apart????? Are you the guy hiding under the rock on the Geico commercial?? Record forclosures, record high unemployment. National debt jeapordising the future od this great country??? As Newt would say. Obama is the food stamp President and, you’re wrong about the republicans in general and Palin in particular. Obam had his shot, he blew it and should not even run for reelection.
Palin is unelectable. She knows it, and her PAC efforts are purely for her own financial gain. Because she is not a declared candidate, and because her PAC is unaffiliated with the Republican party, she LEGALLY can use that money for any purpose she desires….including writing herself an enormous personal check. DO NOT GIVE PALIN MONEY UNTIL SHE DECLARES! Otherwise, you’re just funding her shopping trip for ten thousand dollar shoes.
Mainstream Media Is Not Reporting On Incredible Trend in Palin Poll Numbers http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2732107/posts POLL: Palin, Romney Take Lead Among Iowa Conservatives As Early Race Tightens http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2732097/posts If Sarah Palin Gets in the Race, She Will be the Candidate to Beat http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2732070/posts Palin can ‘snap her fingers’ for money, run and beat Obama, warns GOP expert http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2731881/posts
Sarah won’t run because she doesn’t want another job with responsibility – nor does she want to deal with anyone who might not agree with her (whether public figures or an audience). Her motivation for doing anything is the spotlight. She burned out of the bus tour when it didn’t generate much attention.
Dude or Dudette – no one is afraid of Sarah Palin. Not even the GOP anymore. The “afraid” line is the desperate cry of a doe-eyed Palinian who has no valid defense. Tell me why her plans to fix the country are better than any others and maybe I’ll listen (you can’t because she offers nothing but one-liners and criticism of others – Sarah has no justification for being an executive – she’s only a self-promoter).
It’s a “tall order” to defeat a guy who thinks ATM machines cause unemployment and whose degenerate minions have screwed up everything they have touched? Really? Why is it a tall order??? Is the author genuinely asserting that Ms. Palin is somehow “not qualified” after watching the debacle of our Community Organizer in Chief whose resume would not get him a job as an assistant manager at McDonald’s?
Juan, did you read the last sentence. “American progressives can only hope she decides to pick up the cup.”
Amazing how distorted this article is. I could rip the whole article apart but lets just take on the fact. “For years Palin has made decisions that no professional staffer would have suggested or permitted” You forgot to add and won every election. McCain lost the election by being a RINO and showing it at the made up crisis. The dumb republican narative you liberals play every election is getting real old and stale. Just like your idea’s.
The writer obviously does not live in the US.Barack Obama is widely viewed as a failure among the American public(though not among the deluded liberal media class).It will take a miracle to save his Presidential re-election hopes and ANY Republican will defeat him.What would be best for the USA would be a staunch ANTI-LEFT conservative/libertarian however, and Palin fits the bill.The writer misses reality entirely…It is OBAMA who is the CATASTROPHE,not Palin.She is the Reagan and Barack is the Carter…..
No amount of leftist fear mongering will affect Sarah Palin’s decision to run. I believe she will run and win! Moreover, Sarah Palin winning the presidency will be exceedingly GOOD for America. Why have confidence? A poll conducted by Rasmussen asked the question: Who’s views are closer to your own? Only 40% of American voters said Obama – 52% chose Palin. No convinced yet? Recent polling by PPP showed that Palin was within a few point of Obama in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Nevada (Obama didn’t get more than 47% in these polls – a sign of a likely defeat for an incumbent). Except for Missouri, Obama had won each of those states by sizable margins.
Ha Ha Ha (guffaw) *chuckle* . What you’re really saying is “she’d *better* not run, or we progressives are HOSED.” Just look at the anecdote related by Halperin in “Game Change”. Supposedly, we have a Christian conservative voting for a Muslim over an evangelical. Except that, as we all know, that didn’t happen. Because Obama wasn’t running against Palin, but against McCain. Palin was the VP. It reeks of wishful thinking on the part of the author, as well, to suggest that an American evangelical would vote for a Muslim alien over a US citizen who is a fellow evangelical. More wishful thinking can be found in the phrase “For years Palin has made decisions that no professional staffer would have suggested or permitted, leading one to believe that she is either advised by fools or simply takes no advice.” Considering that Palin’s career was repeatedly described as OVER after the loss in the Presidential race, after the series of lawsuits over bogus charges, after her resignation as Governor, and her release of “Going Rogue” was panned (it became a New York Times bestseller), before “Sarah Palin’s Alaska” made it to cable (it too, was a commercial success, and gave her favorable publicity which I’ll bet she got paid *for*), after the 2010 elections, where approximately 2/3 of the candidates she supported were elected, but she was blamed for a non-existent electoral disaster by members of the discredited GOP RINO old guard, and now, after the release of “The Undefeated”: every time her demise has been confidently proclaimed. And every time so far, she has come back, to growing popularity. I wouldn’t bet against her. In fact, it might be worthwhile for the author–if they are so confident she will lose in a landslide to Obama–to plunk down $1000 or $2000 on Intrade, and to put his money where his mouth is. You betcha!
This piece reeks of desperation and wishful thinking. The kicker is the story from “Game Changer” where allegedly, an American evangelical woman said that they would vote for Obama to keep “that woman” from becoming President. The first problem is, Obama’s opponent for the Presidency was McCain, not Palin. The second problem is, it takes a lot of hopey-changey to believe that an American evangelical would vote for a possible illegal alien (i.e. foreign born, and CBS news reported that Obama’s father was not a citizen, long before the Presidential campaign) Muslim (interview with ABC’s Stephanopoulos, “…my Muslim faith”: Billy Graham would’ve never had such a slip) over a fellow evangelical. But the biggest evidence of wishful thinking is the description of a Palin Presidential run as a potential landslide loss. Palin has routinely been written off as a lost cause, from running for Governor of Alaska, to running for VP (which was supposed to have ended her career), to the legions of bogus “ethics charges” — including her legal defense fund being criminal, based on its being called “Official” to distinguish it from the false-flag defense funds put up by her political enemies –, to her resignation as Governor, to the predicted failure of the book “Going Rogue” (a New York Times bestseller), to the predicted failure of “Sarah Palin’s Alaska (a commercial success which gave her favorable media exposure, for which I’m sure she was paid, instead of having to pay for), to the attacks from TV personalities, including a joke about the statutory rape and impregnation of her underaged daughter by a professional athlete, to the attempted smear trying to link her to the Jared Loughner shootings (he was a leftist), to the attacks following the release of “The Undefeated” (which again was done at no cost to her): every time, the self-annointed confidently predict the end of her career. Care to make a bet, Mr. Spring? Go to Intrade and bet $1000 or $2000 of your own money against her. I’m not willing to bet against her. You betcha!
What is political calculus? It depends on what you are measuring. I was in two 4th of July parades today. It was so much easier to associate Palin’s love of American Exceptional-ism with today’s celebrations than it was to associate it with Obama’s lies and distortions. Unemployment skyrocketing, adding trillions to the debt in record time, crippling our dollar, hurting our future, government mandates, etc. Nothing exceptional about any of that whatsoever. Obama is in big trouble. Every battleground state with Senators that have to win re-election will run against him next year in an attempt to retain their seats like McCaskill in Missouri//NONE of that is happening now. It is so far early to understate the power of Palin’s record and her grassroots support. Don’t forget the “political calculus” of all the politicians she endorsed last year like Ayotte of NH, Branstad of IA, and Haley of SC. Many people are going to be surprised, and others will get to say “I told ya so.”
It never ceases to amaze me how clueless the left in general and those on the right that oppose Palin in particular are when it comes to the Mama Grizzly. While you spend all your time analyzing how weak a candidate you think Palin to be, you have no idea of the depth of disappointment Americans feel toward President Obama. You mistake his glibness and charm for gravitas. He is one of the most incompetent men to ever hold the office. As for Palin’s poll numbers, if she were to win the Republican Nomination, and she very well might, most Americans will see a Palin they have never seen before–one not spoon feed to them like cod-liver oil by the left-leaning mainstream media. Go back in the history of American presidential elections and measure the wide swings in popularity various people who won the presidency experienced. You underestimate Sarah Palin at your peril; and the electoral may already has swung in favor of a Republican candidate.
Progressives? You mean liberal marxists? Stop being so afraid of Sarah Palin. You need to embrace her because she is going to be your next president.
This article is nothing more than ignorant, progressive, propaganda. Virtually every sentence is non-factual. Palin, as a private citizen, spearheaded the take-over of the House, and also huge gains in the Senate, in the 2010 elections. Obama has already lost his re-election bid, with his enept handling of the economy, millions un-employed, unsecure border with Mexico, etc.,etc.,etc.. Sarah Palin will win the Presidency, and the author of this hit piece, will be shown to be the liberal fool that he is.
Did you know that ninety percent of those born into a religion stay in that religion? The US reminds me of that fact in so much that no matter how much of the truth is told, and how often, they will still keep on believing the garbage- purveyors of the Republican Party and their sycophantic supporters whether they be Limbaugh, Fox News or whatever. Hence the rise of the Sarah Palins of this world. Nowhere else in the Western half of the planet would such an airhead be taken so so seriously. I take the candidacy of this individual seriously because I care about the welfare of this planet not whether Obama is an alien.