It’s official: DSK is out of the race for the French presidency. On Sunday, the authority overseeing the Socialist party’s primaries put an end to weeks of speculation, stating that the rules would not be waived in order to allow Strauss-Kahn to declare his candidature after the 13 July deadline.
Or is it? His fervent supporters, the ‘DSK Club’, immediately contested the decision, citing the unfairness of preventing Strauss-Kahn from standing as candidate due to a criminal offence of which he has hitherto not been proven guilty. Meanwhile, candidate François Hollande has stated that an eventual decision to let DSK stand would be taken by the other candidates and not the high authority, reinforcing uncertainty.
Since May, when the man once painted as the white knight of the Socialist party was unexpectedly engulfed by the now infamous New York sex scandal, the Socialists have been fighting to keep their primaries contest on course. With the affair rumbling on in the media, the recent lifting of DSK’s bail raised afresh the question of whether the former director of the IMF could come back, win the Socialist nomination and ultimately the presidential election.
For such speculation to be definitively drawn to a close would be a great relief for many within the party, having dominated the debate on the primaries and the party’s campaign for 2012.
The tumultuous affair aside, the key issue for the Socialists is to rally support for the contest of sufficient breadth and depth, which would give credibility and strength to the candidate thus elected to oppose Nicolas Sarkozy’s second term bid.
Of the six candidates in the primaries, the battle will be fought between frontrunners Martine Aubry, party leader since 2008 and mayor of Lille, and François Hollande, MP and former party leader. So to whom will DSK’s many supporters turn? At first glance, the obvious answer appears to be Hollande, who like Strauss-Kahn is closer to the centre ground. To this effect, Hollande’s campaign is being run by close ally of DSK Pierre Moscovici, bringing with him a number of other pro-DSK heavyweights.
Yet equally many of those loyal to the former IMF director have transferred their allegiance to Aubry, out of respect for the pact made between the two hopefuls that, without ‘DSKgate’, would have seen only one of them going forth to the primaries.
Widely perceived as being firmly in touch with the left’s values, Aubry is appreciated for her successful mayorship of Lille, a traditional bastion of the Socialist party support. Furthermore, she has shown strong leadership of the party, turning it around since its desperate lows of 2008. Aubry is also credited with overseeing the elaboration of the Socialists’ project for the presidential election, to which the successful candidate at the primaries is bound, and that was adopted unanimously by the party.
Although an experienced politician, Hollande is criticised for lacking completely in ministerial experience, which Aubry boasts. Yet whereas Aubry is often perceived as reserved and distant, Hollande is by far the most charismatic, able to engage with large audiences with ease. Moreover, many speculate that Aubry never truly intended to stand for the presidency. Were Strauss-Kahn to have been candidate, once a near certainty, the pact would have allowed a reluctant Aubry to stand aside for the primaries. Indeed, regardless of its veracity, such an idea of ‘candidate by default’ could prove damaging for her campaign.
Currently, Hollande leads in the polls. At the primaries level, results last week gave him the clear majority of support both within the party and more broadly among those eligible for the vote. Crucially, polls also reveal that both Hollande and Aubry would beat the Élysée’s incumbent in the first and second rounds of the actual presidential election, with Hollande a few points ahead of Aubry.
Meanwhile, 2007 candidate Ségolène Royal has been relegated to ‘outsider’ status, scoring far behind in third place in both the primaries and, tellingly, in the first round of the presidential election. Such an outcome would produce the nightmare Sarkozy-Le Pen second round line-up, providing the current president with an easy ticket back into the Élysée.
If the party can pull off the primaries with the decorum and inclusivity fundamental to regaining trust and credibility among the wider electorate, the Socialists will have achieved a vital step to a successful campaign. The stakes could not be higher. With an increasingly unpopular Sarkozy administration and the right’s occupancy of the Élysée since 1995, the thirst for a Socialist victory is real and powerful. The party now has to convince the country that it is fit to govern and thereby seize the opportunity to bring a centre left alternative to power in Europe.
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Felicity Slater is a member of Progress