Pity the tens of thousands of young people scrabbling to get the last few remaining university places for September. It’s tough every year, but this time the stakes are higher than ever. Those who have to re-apply will pay a lifetime penalty of averaging £15,000. About 70,000 students are likely to share a total fee fine of £600m, according to Commons Library figures. Quite a punishment for choosing a too selective a university or dropping an A level grade.

But for those unlucky students and for future generations, things are likely to get worse, not better. The Tory-led government has this year cut 10,000 places from Labour’s plans. Next year another 10,000 will go, while other government departments will cut teaching and nursing degrees as well. More young people will be left chasing fewer and fewer opportunities.

Many of the universities that students are now fighting to get into will have far fewer places to offer in coming years. Next year, 20000 places will be cut from universities who needed to charge more the £7500 to replace lost government grant. Everyone in higher education expects 60,000 places to be cut over the next three years.

These places will in, effect, be auctioned off to anyone who can offer a degree that costs less. Some minimum standards may apply to the private colleges and FE colleges who gain, but no one will be making sure that the new courses are as good as those they replace. Tragically the real success of some FE colleges in delivering higher education may be discredited as the government drives for low cost at the expense of quality.

While successful and popular universities will lose places, those who can attract the students with 2As and a B will be able to expand. Of course, this doesn’t of itself doesn’t create a single additional university place; it simply pits universities against each other with unpredictable consequences. Across higher education there is real concern that the market forces will encourage universities to expand their lowest cost courses at the expense of the science and engineering that the country desperately needs.

Half of all students with 2As and a B go to private schools or selective state schools. And the selective universities will now have few incentives to balance this with efforts to recruit students from poorer backgrounds. Many universities now know they can identify the disadvantaged student who, though with somewhat lower A level grade, will outperform their peers. Universities will no lose places if they offer places to students without 2As and a B.

Despite all its warm words, the government is clearly abandoning much of the successful work to widen participation. Figures from the Commons Library show that spending on outreach activities to encourage poorer students to apply by 60 per cent next year. The successful AimHigher programme has been scrapped, and universities encouraged to prioritise politically attractive fee waivers over measure to encourage students to apply in the first place.

The Labour government not only expanded higher education, but make consistent progress in widening participation. Our university system was recognised around the world not just for its high quality research institutions but the diversity and variety of education on offer. Of course, more change was needed, to extend widening participation to the most selective universities, to expand further science and engineering, and to deliver more vocational degrees.

The government will be extraordinarily lucky if its reforms achieve any of that.

Make no mistake. The Tory and Lib Dem ministers have chosen this path. It’s nothing to do with deficit reduction – a cut in HE in line with other services would have left fees under £4,000 –and everything to do with market ideology.

Future students will see a more markedly two-tier system than we have known for 30 years. But where once our higher education was crudely divided by academic and vocational, tomorrow’s will be crudely divided by quality, by investment per student, and by social class. If you thought this year was bad, you haven’t seen anything yet.

—————————————————————————————

Rt Hon John Denham MP is shadow minister for business, innovation and skills

—————————————————————————————

Photo: Tom Allender