When the United States were hit by riots in the 1960s, the political consequences for the Democrats were felt for decades to come. Labour can avoid a similar fate if it learns from history

Addressing the House of Commons’ emergency sitting in the aftermath of the riots, Ed Miliband struck a suitably prime ministerial pose: strongly condemning the perpetrators of the violence that had beset a number of England’s biggest cities, offering the government bipartisan support for its efforts to bring the disturbances under control while peppering David Cameron with a number of forensic questions about how it intended to do so.

As is Westminster’s way, that bipartisan consensus soon began to fray. While the prime minister opted for the John Major strategy of condemning a little more, and understanding a little less, Labour’s leader attempted a delicate pivot: keeping the condemnation coming, while bringing on a little more understanding.

In policy terms, Miliband is surely correct, recognising, as he put it, that ‘to explain is not to excuse’. His rejection of the ‘false choice’ between ‘opportunity and culture’ was the right one. Politically, however, this balancing act is a fine one, as any ageing American liberal can testify.

The roots of the riots that swept America’s cities in the mid-1960s are very different from those which occurred this summer in England. And so, hopefully, are their extent: the disturbances, which began in Watts in 1965, spread to Chicago, Cleveland and 41 other cities in 1966, to 164 cities in 1967, and, in the aftermath of Martin Luther King’s assassination in April 1968, to almost every city in America. For Lyndon Johnson, they were a vindication of the need for Great Society programme of domestic reform: ‘The only genuine, long-range solution lies in attack – mounted at every level – upon the conditions that breed violence and despair … ignorance, discrimination, slums, poverty, disease, not enough jobs.’ The Kerner commission, which the president appointed to investigate the causes of the disturbances, broadly endorsed this approach when it reported in 1968.

While the causes of the riots were complicated, and were themselves part of the onset of a wider ‘culture war’ from which American politics has still not fully freed itself, their political consequences were anything but. In the 1966 midterm elections, sweeping gains by conservatives effectively put an end to Johnson’s already waning ‘war on poverty’ ambitions. In 1968, with images of America’s burning cities dominating his TV advertisements and promises to bring ‘law and order’ to the streets, Richard Nixon was elected president. ‘Law and order’ would be a recurrent – and powerful – theme of Republican campaigns in subsequent presidential campaigns, driving a wedge into the Democrat coalition and causing the defection of many of the party’s traditionally loyal white working-class supporters.

Indeed, as David Kusnet, a speechwriter for Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s, wrote in his book Speaking American, law and order would spark a chain reaction: ‘Defending national security and defending personal security’ came to occupy ‘adjoining areas in the public mind’, while the perception that you ‘can’t trust Democrats to defend you’ would harden into a view that ‘you can’t trust Democrats to run things’. The political effect was devastating: in the 40 years after 1968 the Democrats would win only four presidential elections, the Republicans seven.

But while the presidential aspirations of George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis crashed and burned, other Democrats managed to show they understood, as a former New York mayor put it, ‘where to draw the line’. The conclusion, political analyst William Schneider, suggested in 1988 following the Democrats’ third consecutive defeat in 1988, was that ‘tough liberals win, soft liberals lose’.

This is the key to what Miliband has thus far got right and must continue to do. In his first major speech after the riots, Labour’s leader linked his response to the theme of responsibility – and the need for more of it at both the top and bottom of society – that he began to develop before the summer recess. It was the willingness of Bill Clinton – the epitome of ‘tough liberalism’ – to link responsibility to opportunity that helped the Democrats break their losing streak in 1992. And it will be the key to whether Miliband can maintain the delicate balancing act he has so far performed.

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Robert Philpot is director of Progress

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Photo: Liji Linaraj