Months of speculation, anticipation and hard campaigning drew to a close on Sunday as François Hollande was elected the French Socialist party’s presidential candidate. Having gained over 56 per cent of the 2.5 million turnout for the second round of the ‘citizens’ primaries’, his victory is certainly resounding. But the real fight has only just begun. Certainly, a majority of primaries voters may have endorsed Hollande to take on Sarkozy, but this success is meaningless unless he can convince a majority of the electorate as a whole next May. To become truly electable, Hollande must both unite France’s infamously fractured left while demonstrating true presidential qualities that demonstrate his potential and expose the incumbent’s incompetency.
Hollande’s foremost challenge is the left. If he cannot succeed in consolidating this broad coalition — across the party and beyond — no amount of presidential airs will get him across the Élysée threshold. Not only would the right revel in highlighting the permanent disarray of its opponents, but Hollande would be critically weakened by a narrower support base, as in 2007 was his predecessor for the presidency and former partner Ségolène Royal.
Early indications are promising. With much grace Martine Aubry, Hollande’s fellow second round contender, conceded victory as soon as Sunday evening’s results gave him the clear lead. Appearing together, smiling and amicable, the two finalists immediately abandoned the adversarial stances adopted for the last week of their campaigns.
Aubry has immediately returned to her position as party general secretary, emphasising that she will do everything she can to ensure Hollande’s victory over Sarkozy next year. Much media speculation now focuses on the integration of the ‘Aubrystes’ into Hollande’s campaign team. This is clearly essential if the party is to avoid slipping into factionalism that would see bitter losers campaign reluctantly, if at all, for Hollande.
As for the four candidates who were knocked out in the primary’s first round, each one subsequently endorsed Hollande. Even if it is no guarantee that their respective supporters did vote for him in the second or will do at the presidential election, it gives an important signal that the Socialists are serious about unity and solidarity. In any case, most Socialists simply wish to beat Sarkozy, a feeling powerful enough for them to rise above the personal politics of individual candidacies.
On the right there is overwhelming relief that the primaries are over. Having unsuccessfully tried to discredit and downplay the contest from the outset, Sarkozy’s UMP can finally tailor their strategy to the designated opponent. Faced by a ministerially inexperienced Hollande, the axis of Sarkozy’s campaign looks set to be his presidential record as an internationally prominent ‘crisis manager’ throughout eurozone turmoil. Despite his own statesmanly experience, as former Socialist party general secretary and prestigious local politician, Hollande will have to work hard to make himself genuinely présidentiable. Already, a whole host of meetings with foreign leaders have been arranged for the next few months to flesh out a presidential image to rival Sarkozy’s.
One of the most critical prisms through which Hollande seeks to demonstrate his readiness for office is undoubtedly the economy. Throughout his primaries campaign, he frequently reiterated his commitment to reducing the deficit to three per cent by 2013. Anchored in a rhetoric of realism, his frankness has resonated with many voters. Indeed, it is a key issue over which Hollande, the undoubtedly more centrist of the two primaries finalists, can reinforce the Socialists’ chances of winning over centre-ground voters disillusioned by Sarkozy.
Next to a president with a reputation for broken promises and a taste for luxury, Hollande, who describes himself as ‘normal’ man, has the potential to articulate a real difference in a country seeking change from years of tired, rightwing administrations. With only seven months to go before meeting le président bling-bling at the polls, Monsieur Normal must not hesitate in his campaign to bring about something exceptional that will both unite the left and inspire the country.
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Felicity Slater is a member of Progress
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