Turkey and the west are drifting apart by degrees. Turkey is at war with the Kurds, has an out of date constitution and journalists in jail. Without an improvement in its domestic situation Turkey’s progress toward EU membership will continue to slow down. Prime minister Erdogan has taken to issuing threats against Israel in order to boost his popularity in the Middle East and at home. This has caused a good deal of disquiet in Europe and the US.
In May 2010 a pro-Hamas group aided by Turkey launched a flotilla ship to try to breach Israel’s blockade of Gaza which resulted in the deaths of nine Turks when Israeli commandos boarded and defended themselves against attack. Erdogan threatened to sever diplomatic relations with Israel unless it apologised for causing the casualties. Israel refused to apologize on the grounds that it was defending a legal blockade and had a right to defend themselves if attacked by those on board. As a result Erdogan downgraded relations with it and upped the ante by threatening to send naval vessels to accompany any future flotillas, thus risking war with Israel and possibly the US. This bellicose language occurred despite the fact that the UN’s Palmer Report stated that the blockade was legal. The Report also found that Israel was guilty of excessive force in defending itself.
There has been a subtle shift in western perceptions as a result of these confrontations and threats. From being a safe pair of hands, Turkey is increasingly being seen as a possible cause of instability. The loyalty of the west is being stretched. Turkey continues to be a member of NATO and is supported as a counterweight against Iran’s influence in the region. At the same time there is a dawning awareness among democratic nations that Turkey is not as reliable an ally as once thought. Earlier talk about Turkey being a democracy and stabilising force in the region was based on a picture of events taken at particular moments. Since then the picture has been changing in the wrong direction.
One of the reasons for the support of some western leaders up to now is that they have accepted Turkey’s claims to be a country willing and able to negotiate disputes in the region, not least between Israel and its enemies. Erdogan has chosen to take sides instead. The situation in the Middle East has at the same time grown much more complicated and delicate as the Arab Spring continues to reshape the region. What is needed is an ally that will help to cool tempers and maintain stability, whereas Turkey under Erdogan is in crucial ways doing the opposite.
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The idea of Turkey being a bridge to the east is increasingly incredible. They aren’t a bridge. They play one off against the other. It’s time for Turkey to decide if they are our ally or not. We don’t have time for a guessing game on how they are going to react to tomorrow’s events.