I’ve always believed in Tunisia. I’d seen first hand how frustrating life could be there under the regime, when I was mildly harassed by secret police there six years ago. Small things, like having police officers sitting outside your hotel room when you got back from a meeting, having the roads outside the British Council shut down by the police because you were holding a sizeable workshop on e-democracy in the Middle East, being kept at immigration in the airport for just that little bit longer to make life uncomfortable. Nothing as serious as some of the horrible stories we’ve heard about torture underneath the Interior Ministry, political imprisonment or vanishing neighbours. Having developed lasting friendships in the country, I always felt bittersweet about visiting and leaving, knowing what kind of future any Tunisian was guaranteed if they got involved in politics – something I take for granted back home in Britain.

But experiencing that country over the last few years showed me above all an energy and optimism which pointed to a better future. Last December when Muhamad Bouazizi, a young fruitseller in rural Tunisia committed suicide in front of the mayor’s office in protest at the heavy, corrupt hand of the local police, it was quickly apparent to me that the ramifications would be massive and lasting. Protest on the scale Tunisia saw, even just a week or two after that flashpoint event, was unprecedented at that point. That people were bold enough for the first time to come together and say ‘enough’, was deeply inspiring considering the decades-long history of brutal political repression. The regime was caught like a cat in the headlamps of an oncoming car, and thankfully didn’t survive – the first democratic revolution of an Arab dictatorship happened on January 14th 2011, and it set off the historic Arab Spring across the region.

This weekend, Tunisians went to the polls in their first ever democratic vote. Just nine months after the toppling of Ben Ali’s dictatorship, over 90 per cent of eligible voters turned out to openly choose their candidates for the Tunisian Constitutional Assembly. Observers from around the world have praised the Tunisians for carrying out free and fair elections, quite a feat for a country which has never had a free and fair election before (previously, regime candidates would get between 95 per cent & 99 per cent of any votes cast, and up to half of elected voters were names of people who had already died). Since the downfall of the regime, up to a hundred political parties have been formed, and there was also a sizeable contingent of independent candidates across the country. The battle of ideas has been fierce for months, the main area of contention between the Islamic ‘Ennahda’ party, and secularists. Tunisia is a Muslim country, but one which is proud of its secular achievements for women and on economic liberalisation.

Urban areas tend to be more secular, while smaller towns, villages and rural areas tend to be more religious. The split can also be seen through an economic lens; poorer Tunisians tend to be more religious, and more well-off Tunisians tend to lean toward the secular. The Islamic party, at least publicly, committed itself to respecting the secular achievements of Tunisia, and pledged to govern in the style of the AKP party in Turkey. Many secularists however, find the party untrustworthy and no matter how strong Ennahda’s public commitments on secularism are, young Tunisians are afraid that their freedoms will be taken away from them, and that their nation will become a more conservative Islamic place in which to live. It appears from early results that Ennahda is the biggest party in the election, with around a 40 per cent share of the vote – so many secularist Tunisians will feel alarmed at the result of their first ever democratic election.

Despite that initial alarm though, other parties did well in the election too, and Ennahda won’t be able to govern on its own. Coalition government would temper the ability for Ennahda to enact more conservatively religious policies. Besides that, the priority for Tunisia over the coming years will be to secure the economic situation and continue the successful developments in education and science they’ve seen over the last decades. One Western diplomat, speaking to the FT, warned against a ‘drift’ on economic policy; a drift which would happen if the next Tunisian government instead focuses on how to make the country a less liberal place. So Ennahda’s hands are tied politically and economically. Regionally too, it’s highly unlikely that Europe would be too keen on having an outpost of Islamism a few hundred miles from its southern shores – Tunisia will have to keep itself competitive and liberal if it is to continue receiving much needed trade and aid from Europe for decades to come.

So there are potentially rocky times ahead, as Tunisians of all political persuasions grapple with the realities of democratic debate. Ideas and values will power that country going forward, rather than raw power and brutal dictatorship. No longer do neighbours have to fear each other, no longer do the secret police lurk in every shadow. Yes there is political tension – two main visions of Tunisia are emerging, between a more Islamic future, and a strong commitment to secularism – but that tension is expected in any democracy, and is probably healthy. People will have to fight for what they believe, and I think they will. It’s been fascinating to see how Tunisians have moved very quickly from a repressive dictatorship to a true democracy, with a battle of ideas at the heart of that democracy. The peaceful elections have shown, contrary to what some western commentators thought, that Muslim Arabs can hold democratic elections, that they can achieve democracy by protest, debate and votes, without guns and bombs being involved.

In the immediate aftermath of the revolution in January, many in Britain and America feared the worst for Tunisia. Talk was of an enclave of Islamic extremism just south of Italy. Some feared a sort of protracted civil war between supporters of the old regime and the proponents of democracy. Some people wondered if a country so inexperienced with democracy could pull off the transition. The pessimists have been proven wrong; this weekend’s successful elections have shown what is possible. The next few months are a test for the country, and once they get a new government and start developing policies, we will see what Tunisians can do with democracy. As long as neither of the two schools of thought which have taken political prominence (Islam vs secularism) feel they have a monopoly over ideas and culture, and as long as they all remember the spirit of the revolution which gave them their democracy, I believe that country’s future will be bright.

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Luke Bozier has previously written about Tunisia here

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Photo: European Parliament