Last Wednesday, before the EU summit, Angela Merkel asked the Bundestag to fulfil its ‘historic duty’ and support her euro bailout plans. They duly complied, with 503 of 596 votes in favour. There were in fact more votes against the resolution from Merkel’s own party than from the two main opposition parties – the Greens and the Social Democratic party. Only Die Linke, Germany’s leftwing party, voted as a block to oppose the measures.

In the run up to the EU summit Merkel was experiencing what some commentators were claiming to be a collapse in her political support. A poll recently showed that 76 per cent of the German people were dissatisfied with her handling of the crisis. The Social Democratic party, in contrast, polled with a support of 32 per cent, its highest since February 2007. Indeed, the poll suggests that a red-green coalition would receive 46 per cent of the vote, as opposed to the 36 per cent predicted for the current ruling coalition – which is becoming more divided than ever.

Two developments may initially appear to have turned around Merkel’s political fortunes ahead of the election in 2013. The German press – with some exceptions – were full of praise for the German chancellor following last Wednesday’s summit, hailing it as the start of a new Europe. This may be the case: aside from slashing Greek debt by 50 per cent, increasing the EFSF fund to one trillion euros, and seeking to ensure that European banks raise their core capital rates to nine per cent, the 17 eurozone nations may have created a divided Europe.

As the talks dragged on into the evening last Wednesday, the 10 EU representatives of states who are not in the eurozone were politely asked to leave – including David Cameron, of course. The remaining representatives then not only made the key decisions which will start to shape Europe in the years to come, but confirmed their new right to work more closely together without having to confer with non-EU members in writing.

This theme of ‘two Europes’ may be set to continue this week at the G20 summit in Cannes. The German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear in an interview with the Financial Times that he was prepared to support the EU in going it alone in implementing tax on financial transactions if no accord is reached in Cannes. He also left no doubt that if the 27 EU states were not in agreement – the UK government is seen as particularly hostile to the measure – then the 17 eurozone nations will attempt to forge ahead regardless.

The announcement of a Greek referendum on the proposed measures have put the German press in less of a celebratory mood, however. Die Welt postulated that prime minister George Papandreou’s move may lead not only to Greece’s bankruptcy, but also represent the ‘nail in the coffin’ for the eurozone.

The rightwing paper Bild, which has Germany’s largest daily circulation at around four million, led with: ‘Will uns der Griechen-Premier verarschen?’
This reflects the anger felt in Germany not only towards the threat that Greece’s economy poses, but also the reactions Germany’s interventions have received. Reports that Horst Reichenbach – the German banker who headed the European Commission’s task force in their bid to introduce reforms to Greece’s economic structure – was met in Greece with such insulting headlines as ‘Third Reichenbach’ understandably created considerable affront.

Merkel’s second act of political expediency has wrongfooted the Social Democratic party here in Berlin. The German chancellor has accepted that it is time for the full implementation of a minimum wage in Germany. This has been met with huge enthusiasm by the trade unions, but less so by the Social Democrats and Merkel’s own party, for very different reasons. The Social Democrats, who of course are strongly in favour of the minimum wage, have lost a major campaigning platform against the government. The conservative elements of the ruling coalition, however, have vehemently opposed the minimum wage on the grounds that it hinders corporate growth. This U-turn which comes in a long line of significant changes to what appeared to be the foundations of the Christian Democratic party. On key issues such as compulsory military service, the three-tiered school system and nuclear power, Merkel has reversed her core beliefs – and gone against those of her party.

Merkel’s sharp about-faces may seem to be politically expedient, but could also leave German politics in a haze of confusion, and provoke increasingly sharp opposition from the Christian Democrats. Should the German chancellor continue to receive support from the main two parties in opposition, and yet be opposed by her own party in the Bundestag, then it will be difficult for voters to ascertain what Merkel’s principles actually are, and what indeed her party stands for. This Iron Lady may be taking a lead both at home, and increasingly in Europe, but does so seemingly without a real ideological basis.

—————————————————————————————

Jack Tunmore is a member of Progress based in Berlin and tweets @JackTunmore

—————————————————————————————

Photo: Kancelaria Premiera