Like free trade in the 19th century and the Irish question 100 years ago, the Europe problem is now going to dominate parliament until the next election and perhaps much longer. As MPs mull over what has happened there are 10 aspects from the crisis over British relations with Europe which are worth exploring.
- Was Friday a cock-up or calculation? The agenda item of concern to David Cameron was reached at 2.30 in the morning. Fellow EU leaders were exhausted, fed up and desperate for bed, especially Nicolas Sarkozy with a brand-new baby denying him sleep and a tricky presidential election in less than six months. Why didn’t Cameron just go to bed and see if, with better advice, and some nice words for Mr Sarkozy and Ms Merkel he might have found a formula?
- Why are senior Europhobe Tories now proclaiming they all want to stay in the EU? I debated with Bernard Jenkin on LBC over the weekend and he insisted that he and Bill Cash were now very keen to for the UK to stay in the EU. Does this square with Douglas Carswell or Daniel Hannan and John Redwood who want out? What happens to calls for a referendum? Do the 81 Tory rebels who defied Cameron still want one and if so what should the question be?
- Why the veto language? The decision of the prime minister not to allow Britain to take part in negotiations on the Euro crisis was not a veto as there was neither a new treaty or even a final settlement to say yes or no to. There will be Council meeting after Council meeting before any final deal is reached. All Cameron did was to exclude UK participation in the process.
- What does this mean for Scotland? Will an English prime minister heading an English Conservative party be able to dictate Scotland’s relationship with the EU? Is this not a major encouragement for those in Scotland who want to see an independent Scotland firmly inside the EU offering itself as a location for inward investment to US and Asian firms that want to do business in the world’s biggest market?
- How does British politics cope with the Clegg-Cable line that they utterly disagree with the prime minister but will not do anything about it? They want to hang on to their red boxes and ministerial cars but ditch the principles that Paddy Ashdown, Charlie Kennedy and Ming Campbell stood for as pro-Europeans. The British state works on a single government, collective cabinet responsibility and discipline in the Commons. Are we seeing a new multifaceted constitutional practice of government?
- Does anyone care that every single foreign paper had the word ‘isolation’ linked to Britain in its headlines over the weekend? For centuries Britain has sought to stop a dominant European ideology or state or economic policy develop. The UK sits at every important supranational decision-making table – the UN, WTO, IMF, G8, G20 but no longer at the EU. Is this a message to send Washington, Beijing, Moscow or New Delhi?
- Why is there not a single Tory taking a different line other than the vapours arising from the exhausted volcano of Ken Clarke? At the height of Labour anti-Europeanism in 1983 when Labour called for withdrawal from Europe, there were at least a group around John Smith, soon to be reinforced by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who defied Labour isolationism. Is it healthy when there is a total monopoly of thought in a major political party?
- Why could Mr Cameron not find a single ally? To begin with the deal was presented as the eurozone 17 plus others but a significant block of countries including Sweden and Hungary were said to be siding with Mr Cameron. Alas, the British-Hungarian Empire lasted only four hour. The world realised that Britain was alone as the other 26 countries were willing to negotiate. Mrs Thatcher never went naked into the EU Council chamber. She won her rebate but in exchange increased fourfold Britain’s EC budget contribution – from £656 million in 1984 to £2.54 billion in 1990. That won friends and influenced people unlike the patronising advice from George Osborne and David Cameron to other EU leaders who look at no-growth, high-employment, indebted Britain and do not think advice from London is needed.
- Do the Tories realise that they have got the best Europe of their lifetimes? Unlike Mrs Thatcher who had to deal with the socialist Francois Mitterrand or the centre-left Jacques Delors, today’s prime minister has a Europe utterly controlled by centre-right parties producing solutions which are aimed at reducing public expenditure, weakening trade unions, and imposing classic conservative fiscal rigour. The three EU presidents – of the Commission, the Council, and the parliament – are all fellow centre-right politicians. Why alienate them?
- Is it time to rethink the colossal blunder of pulling out of the alliance with other centre-right parties to enter into partnership with what Nick Clegg calls ‘nutters, anti-semites, and homophobes’. The most important meeting in Europe last week was in Marseilles, attended by US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner. It was the political gathering of centre-right parties and the presidents of the EU Commission and Council which decided the line to take in Brussels. The UK was not there. Tony Blair and Gerhard Schroeder struck a mutual veto deal against EU directives which prevented London and Berlin from facing rules they opposed. Such a deal could have been on offer to David Cameron but it means doing politics in Europe not striking Eurosceptic postures in London.
Mr Cameron will get cheers from Eurosceptic MPs and the volume of jeers against Europe will increase. But the story has a long way to run and the final ending is not yet written.
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Denis MacShane is MP for Rotherham and a former Europe minister
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A few points…
6. The UK still sits at the table of the EU. This new deal is outside of the EU and will most likely never happen. Even if the Irish politicians agree with it, the electorate never will.
8. All of our allies were bought off with concessions. We weren’t offered any. I genuinely believe this is Sarkozy posturing for his election in four months.
9. Again, whilst it might be the best Europe, Sarkozy is still a prat. He’ll be gone in 4 months and the socialists will be in… whether that’s better or not, who knows. I can see a few years of strained relations with the French coming our way.