Forty-three NGO workers, including 19 Americans involved in democracy promotion in Egypt, have been arrested and charged with interference in the internal affairs of the country. This could jeopardise the 1979 peace treaty with Israel as US aid, tied to support for the treaty, is now under threat as a result of the case against the Americans.
This threat from the old regime has added to fears created by the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in last month’s parliamentary elections. The Brotherhood has made conflicting statements about whether it will respect the treaty. A growth in hostility by Egypt toward Israel cannot be ruled out but at the moment it isn’t the most likely scenario.
The people of Egypt have been driving change for democracy and economic reform and are exerting pressure on both the Brotherhood and the army, neither of which has a free hand as a result. The Brotherhood has been changed by Tahrir Square. It will have to promote the aims of the demonstrators and voters or risk losing the legitimacy it has earned so far. These aims impact indirectly on foreign policy. If Egypt were to engage in conflict with Israel it would risk a descent into chaos, precisely the opposite of what the country needs after a year of upheaval and a failing economy.
Authoritarian regimes in the region have traditionally sought to blame Israel in order to deflect criticism away from themselves but the underlying conditions today are very different from those which existed before the Arab revolt began. The people of the region are no longer passive and easily led; a new generation is active, savvy and less willing to see their hopes and dreams sidetracked by scapegoating. This doesn’t mean that the people are pro-Israel, but the expression of their attitudes toward foreign policy is likely to be less confrontational than was the case with regimes of the past.
If Egypt’s rulers opt for conflict with Israel it will be because they are trying to turn the tide against democracy and reform at home. Popular resistance is likely to be the result. The balance of forces at the moment is in favour of continued peace. Things are changing fast, however, and this window of opportunity may close. An opportunity exists for the pro-peace and democracy forces in Egypt and the west. If the Brotherhood decides it wants a theocracy or the army decides it wants to preserve its privileges at all costs the people will have to be dealt with first. Playing the Israel card will only become a real danger if the regime succeeds in suppressing its own people.
The west should seize the opportunity that exists at the moment. The most important prerequisite for this is to grasp the fact that the old way of doing things in the Middle East, through dictators who agree to look after the west’s interests in return for western support, is no longer an option. If tried today it will backfire by increasing hostility toward the west and feeding into the hands of reactionaries.
The west should engage with the main political forces, the Brotherhood and the army. Talk can bring about change under current conditions. The west may find that in advocating democracy and economic development they are knocking on an open door, a door being held open by the people. The case of the NGO workers makes this harder but it is by no means a foregone conclusion that Egypt’s relations with the west will deteriorate much further.
The Islamists and the regime can no longer depend on the old rules of the game to bring them results either. The Israel card is no longer the easy option. Economic issues and greater freedoms have become the chief preoccupation of the people. Changes in the political landscape provide an opportunity to bring about peace and democracy.
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It is indeed profoundly shocking that in Egypt foreign agents are being subjected to conditions considerably less onerous than those imposed on foreign agents in the USA. The US Foreign Agents Registration Act imposes a maximum penalty of five years in gaol on those who violate it. The so-called NGO activists – they are of course paid agents of the US government – did not even bother to apply for permits. The US National Endowment for ‘Democracy’ invests millions every year in destabilizing any government, elected or other, that does not respond ‘how high?” when the US shouts ‘jump’. But we Anglosaxons have practised hypocrisy and double standards for so many decades (in the case of the British Empire, centuries) we do it all unawares….AS for Bob Glaberson’s pipe-dream that the Egyptian masses are desperate to lick the boots of the most aggressive and rapacious colonialists ever to have attacked the Middle East – the Zionists – he should wake up.