Trouble is seemingly never far away for this government. On health, Andrew Lansley has just been battered in the week past, but on welfare the government faces further assault in the week ahead. Iain Duncan Smith may be the quiet man of politics but what he proposes in welfare reform is anything but a moot point. Much like Lansley’s bill, Duncan Smith’s welfare reform bill promises generational change. The bill has been defeated an unprecedented eight times in the Lords, which prompted the prime minister to force through the plans using a parliamentary technique solely reserved for the budget. David Cameron applied for the bill to be considered for financial privilege, which meant the will of the Commons would prevail and peers will be denied the chance of another vote. Much like his troubles over the NHS, Cameron then took to the airwaves to protest that his government’s intentions were being ‘misrepresented’ – which is symptomatic of a person who has lost the political argument.

For all the focus on the health bill, it is the welfare legislation that has so far had the more torrid time in the parliamentary corridors. The government has suffered one outright reverse on the health bill to eight defeats on the welfare bill, including a rebellion against the proposed £26,000 benefit cap. The difference between the two bills is that the NHS reforms play to voters’ deepest fears about the Tories: namely that they plan to privatise it. While little real detail is known about the welfare bill, the intention is clear: Tory core voters will be behind the plans, as to will many a traditional Labour supporter. On welfare at least, it is the ‘same old Tories’ – but in this case it is a prized moniker.

Our Lords will get the chance to pass further scrutiny on Duncan Smith’s ideas on Wednesday. Indeed, Wednesday represents a packed parliamentary agenda and surely the day where the fortunes of the government will ebb and flow. Prime Minister’s Questions at midday will see an increasingly rattled prime minister take on an emboldened Ed Miliband who last week, like a seasoned surgeon, methodically dissected the shambles that is the government’s NHS reforms. Straight after, the second reading of the water industry bill will commence which proposes to cut water bills to consumers in the south-west. Never accuse the government of buying their votes.

The main event of Wednesday is the treasury committee’s audience with Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England. King will be questioned about the latest bout of quantitative easing, which saw £50bn pumped into the economy last month to take the total amount to an eye-watering £325bn since the first tranche in early 2009.  With unemployment rising by 48,000 in the last quarter to over 2.6 million and growth recently revised down to a meagre 0.8 per cent for the entirety of 2011 – King and his associates can expect robust questioning on their handling of the UK economy.

Elsewhere Nick Clegg continues his quest that really only a few Lib Dems, and parliamentary enthusiasts, truly care about: that of Lords reform. It looks increasingly likely, however, that a Lords reform bill will be presented in the next Queen’s speech thus continuing the attritional and intricate battle to enact Lords reform.

For Labour, the weekend papers contained rumours that a former leader is back on the political scene. No, Gordon Brown hasn’t come down from his Scottish retreat, but Tony Blair is said to be back meeting new MPs – including at a Baker Street restaurant last night – and offering his nuanced advice. With Labour a mere two per cent ahead of the Conservatives, despite all the troubles detailed above, having a thrice-winning Labour leader return to town should give the party confidence in the weeks ahead. Unless of course you’re the comrades at Left Futures.

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David Talbot is a political consultant, tweets @_davetalbot and writes the weekly The Week Ahead column on Progress

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Photo: Foreign and Commonwealth Office