The Labour party has become an effective opposition. As someone who desperately wants to see our party back in office, that’s a terrifying prospect . Every step we take towards being an effective opposition runs the risk of taking us further away from being a government-in-waiting.

An effective opposition does what Labour has achieved in recent months. It aligns itself to those opposing the government’s changes – for example the BMA over the NHS bill, or the Daily Mirror over the budget. In parliament, it makes ministers lives a misery, harrying them at every question time and second reading, firing parliamentary questions like poison darts, and every now and again bringing down a big beast. In the country, it organises street stalls, demos and vigils. Governments win parliamentary votes and pass legislation. Oppositions win council seats, and pass the time until the next election.

At the height of New Labour, disgruntled Labour members used to say to me ‘this isn’t the party I joined’. One, when I was a candidate in Billericay in 1997, refused to help our campaign when he found out I supported the leader of the Labour party. The terrible ignominy and humiliation of Labour’s landslide caused his resignation from the party altogether.

I joined the Labour party in late 1986. Today it feels almost exactly like the party I joined. My first Save the NHS march and rally was in 1988. We organised ‘hands across Britain’ to protest against mass unemployment. How we railed against the Tories and their millionaire mates when Nigel Lawson reduced the top rate of tax from 60p to 40p in his 1988 budget.

Living at that time in a northern post-industrial city, with demolitions of empty factories happening all around, it was hard to fathom the results of the 1987 general election. After mass unemployment, soaring NHS waiting lists, the miners’ strike, the abolition of Ken Livingstone’s GLC and eight years of Thatcher, the best the Labour party could manage was to beat the SDP-Liberal Alliance into third place. At that election, Labour lost six seats, in Walthamstow, Thurrock, Ipswich, Fulham and Battersea. The net gains of 20 seats for Labour masked the collapse of the Labour vote across the south of England.

It is important to understand the Tory strategy. On the surface it was all about destroying Neil Kinnock’s credibility on nuclear weapons, tax and links to the trade unions. But underlying it was the creating a coalition of families who had done well out of Thatcherism. Not millionaires in mansions. But middle-income earners who bought their council houses, and stayed in work throughout the 1980s, like the apocryphal man Tony Blair met in the Midlands polishing his Mondeo.

Butler and Kavanagh’s election study concluded that:

‘the Conservatives had located a large constituency of ‘winners,’ people who have an interest in the return of a Conservative government. It includes much of the affluent South, home-owners, share-owners, and most of those in work, whose standard of living, measured in post-tax incomes, has risen appreciably since 1979.’

Twenty-five years ago, and again 20 years ago, the Labour party failed to reach out to this huge section of the electorate. Tony Blair managed to persuade five million of them to switch sides in 1997, delivering a landslide. But since those halcyon days, they’ve deserted the Labour party. In 1987, Labour won 31 per cent of the popular vote; in 1992 it was 34 per cent. In 2010, it was 29 per cent.

To win next time, the Labour party needs to stop acting like an effective opposition, and start behaving like a government-in-waiting. It should be easy for a frontbench who as ministers or special advisers are used to being in government. That was not a luxury enjoyed in previous periods of opposition by Kinnock, Cook, Brown, Prescott or Blair.

It is increasingly clear what we’re against. We will repeal the NHS bill says Andy Burnham. We don’t like the 45p top rate of tax says Rachel Reeves. We think the welfare reforms are unfair and ill-thought-through says Liam Byrne. We don’t like police commissioner elections says Yvette Cooper.

Fine. But what are we for? As each statement of virulent opposition to the latest calumny perpetrated by ministers is voiced, it adds to a growing canon of things we oppose. It’s enough to organise a street stall. But as things stand, we don’t even have enough official policy to draft a pledge card. Will Labour say to Tony Lloyd and John Prescott that they are one-term police commissioners, as the incoming government presents the Police Commissioners (Abolition) Bill? Is our message to the tens of thousands of GPs who will be commissioning NHS services by 2015 that their services are no longer required, and we will bring in new laws to get someone else to do it? If so, then who? Are we going to campaign in 2015 on a pledge to raise the basic rate of tax to 50 pence? Do we think it’s a vote-winner to tell the voters Labour will spend more on welfare benefits? Even the five-point plan on the economy, a robust and useful short-term device, will be outdated by 2015.

The policy review being conducted by Liam Byrne takes on a new, pressing urgency with each day that passes. It’s not like Meet the Challenge, Make the Change in 1989, which was designed to eradicate the policies identified as the biggest vote-losers. Nor is it like Cameron’s after 2005, which was designed to obfuscate the fissures within the Tory party. Instead, it must come up with a credible economic and social programme which attracts the kinds of people who hear the word ‘millionaire’ without frothing at the mouth.

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Paul Richards writes a weekly column for Progress, Paul’s week in politics

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Photo: UK Parliament