I write this in the rosy afterglow of the local election results, but before the tempest in London and Glasgow. It is always a mistake to rush to instant analysis, especially after so little sleep, but I’m going to do it anyway.
First, it is encouraging that Labour is doing well in the council areas which are coterminous with target parliamentary seats, especially in the south. Wins in Reading, Hastings, Exeter, Lincoln, Dudley, Thurrock, Harlow, Plymouth, Southampton and across the south and south-east are fantastic news for our candidates and MPs in those areas. It is an old saw that local election victories are a precursor to parliamentary victories.
The presence of Labour councillors gives Labour parliamentary candidates a support mechanism, and an activist base. Some of the terrific young people elected last night will be campaigning relentlessly to see the likes of Polly Billington, Suzy Stride, and Sarah Owen elected in 2015. While it is always fun to see Labour polling up majorities in places like Liverpool, Salford, Manchester and Knowsley (where Labour won every seat, 63 out of 63, North Korean-style) what matters is the results in these key parliamentary seats. These results are not a compelling answer to Southern Discomfort, but they offer a comfy cushion to make it less uncomfortable. As of Friday morning, Labour had a vote share of 39 per cent. Solid, and an obvious improvement on 2010 and 2008, but could do better. Ed Miliband’s position is now secure as leader, but the pressure is on to lead the party to further gains. It is also vindication for general secretary Iain McNicol.
The big losers are the Liberal Democrats. At least five Lib Dem group leaders, in Salford, Cardiff, Manchester, and elsewhere have lost their seats. In St Helens, the Lib Dem leader, who lost his seat, is helping the police with their enquiries after a punch-up. The Lib Dems have dipped under 3,000 council seats for the first time since the days of the SDP. In many cities they’ve been wiped out. Lib Dem activists have been brutalised by the experience of coalition. The Orange Bookers, with their lust for the trappings of office, have jettisoned the dog poo, pothole, pavement politics brigade. Hundreds have lost their cherished council seats, and the sight of Danny Alexander brandishing a red box is no consolation. Clegg is ‘very sad’ and Farron is ‘sorry’. But crocodile tears won’t save their hides.
The Tories’ answer to their widespread defeats is twofold: they hope for a win in London, and will launch a reshuffle of ministers, promoting the next generation of Greg Clark, Grant Shapps and Alok Sharma. After her laughable performance on the airwaves last night, it must be curtains for Baroness Warsi.
A proper analysis must be conducted about why Labour seems to have failed to win in London. The NEC should lead it. Though the results are not all in yet, it appears Ken Livingstone could not reach out to a new generation of voters in the capital. Losing London in 2008 could be put down to the Gordon Brown factor. But losing London against the backdrop of a fantastically unpopular coalition government would be seriously worrying. Labour could do worse than to look at the mayoral campaign run by Siobhan Benita, a Labour-voting former civil servant, and work out why she seems to have done well.
It is a tragedy that the city-mayoral referendums also appear to have been lost. It ends the experiment for a generation, just as the north-east assembly referendum stymied regional government. Labour mayors like Iain Stewart in Salford and Joe Anderson in Liverpool will remain the exception, not the rule, in local government. The defeat of the referendum in Birmingham is a blow to those who sought the mayoralty. Liam Byrne and Gisela Stuart remain as MPs (and Byrne remains an elected member of the shadow cabinet). But Siôn Simon, who gave up his parliamentary seat to allow Jack Dromey to be selected as Labour’s candidate, now must contemplate a different political future than the one he has been working for for the past two years.
The biggest disappointment of the night is turnout. Last week I was in Iraq, working with members of the Iraqi parliament. In that country, democracy is seen as a precious asset, to be protected and nurtured. A purple-dyed finger, proof that a citizen has cast their vote, is seen as a badge of honour. In many wards yesterday, the badge of honour was to have proudly abstained from a political system which continues its descent into irrelevancy.
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Paul Richards writes a weekly column for Progress, Paul’s week in politics. He tweets @LabourPaul
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Photo: Louisa Thomson
yeah what was the turnout 32% ? that’s a bloody disgrace isn’t it .I suppose people in general must think there’s no saving us tramping through this swamp for the next five years, better just hunker down try not to spend too much and erm pray. But that’s SO saddo isn’t it ,yes hard to have ideas on growth when global interdependency or European at least is so wibbly wobbly.We can’t all be Tory MP’s with vast investments in the ” emerging markets ” and cash stash in havens. They continue to prioritise this way of behaving- making money out of money – no wonder they can’t be arsed to engender any other kind of growth scheme for the country !
And Clegg “so sad” God ,he’s like a child – what happened diddums did your ties all fall in the wash together and come out the colour of sh.. ? serves you right (right ,get it)
As someone who doesn’t live in London but has seen media performances I feel the reason if Ken loses will be because it was Ken.
He did strongly come across as Mr Sound-bite, who didn’t have a leg to stand on once his own tax arrangements were brought into the campaign.
With regards to that the city-mayoral referendums also appearing to have been lost I think it’s brilliant because and very much like AV outside of the political bubble it’s not what people are crying out for.
Completely agree that the biggest disappointment was turnout and lessons could probably be learned, loathed as I am to say it, from the so-called Respect Party.
If people want something they will go out for it, that’s how we won what the party was saying a so-called safe ward and, in turn, something not worth bothering with, from the Tories at the last locals here.
Don’t and most will think why bother.
Labour put Ken up to get rid of him. Few believed any Labour candidate would win the London mayoralty. It is a very sad day when the party machine uses our democratic processes to wash their dirty linen, rather than test a new candidate.
WHAT ! Cameron etc gain advanced access to witness statements at Leveson- surley that’s not lawful ? its certainly not democratic !
Paul,
It is sad to see you describe the referendum defeats as tragic. History shows a distinct lack of public enthusiasm for the idea and you might just stop and consider whether it’s just possible that the public are right on this issue. The Mayoral model is strictly outside the traditional model of British politics and is clearly much more in alignment with the American presidential model.
In London we are presented with a choice between two showmen. Elsewhere we have had a motley assortment of characters, almost everywhere proving to be pretty unaccountable to anyone. In London the Mayor is way above and beyond being accountable to the Assembly, which of course, was designed to be hung. A 66% majority is required to amend his budget.
Perhaps the public have got this one spot on.
There’s a special feeling on the night of a winning count. I moved to Witney in 1996 but was PPC in Henley until 1997. That means I have never, in sixteen years, had that winning feeling in the Windrush Leisure Centre, Witney. Last night was remarkable. No excuses, no uncomfortable interviews, no teeth grinding as Tories yelped with delight. Just good honest success. It is this sort of endorsement by our communities that is the best recruiter. Loved it. Oh, and you get councillors to take home!
A great night in my city, Birmingham – even better with the distraction of a city mayor removed. The real debate needs to be around the restoration of regional powers. The election of regional police commissioners opens the way to this. It is a scandal that London – with its wealth and other advantages – is the only English region to enjoy elected regional government. Progressives need to press for genuine devolution of powers to each met- region and for this to be entrenched in a new statutory code on central-local relations.
FLICK , RUFFLE , RUMPLE “I know I’m worth it ” and so do Barclays
“and I’d like to thank, money”
“and I’d like to thank, those who have some “
c’mon Ken ,get those unemployment figures up on County Hall !
I think one of the postive outcomes of Thursday’s local elections was the decisive rejection of elected mayors. This was a ‘top down’ initiative by Westminster politicians and civil servants and deserved to be defeated. There is no demonstrated connection between an elected mayor and regenerating the local economy (as Liverpool are set to find out) and people were being asked to vote for a post whose new powers remained unspecified. Had the previous Labour Government recreated a model of governance for London based around the GLC we would be celebrating a sizeable win in London. Happy to agree with the author that this issues is dead for a political generation.
Ken Livingstone’s vote was within 1% of Labour’s vote on the party-list in London (and ten-and-a-half times the size of Siobhan Bonita’s), so the simplistic view that the only reason we didn’t win the mayoralty was because he was the candidate bears no examination at all.
The figures show that Labour had a Boris problem in London, not a Ken one. It is worth reading All That’s Left’s analysis to get some balance (http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/05/london-election-round-up/).
That link again!
http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/05/london-election-round-up/