Labour’s impressive local election results on 3 May provided the ideal platform for Labour activists to gather at the 13th Progress annual conference to debate the new centre-ground of British politics and how to form a majority Labour government in 2015. For as Andrew Adonis, Progress Chair, emphasised in opening the conference, there is no law of politics that parties that have recently lost a general election are destined to be out of power for a generation.
In the 1970s Britain had four prime ministers – Edward Heath, Harold Wilson, James Callaghan and Margaret Thatcher – and the British public voted the governing party out of office in 1970, 1974 and 1979. Herein lies Ed Miliband’s opportunity to return Labour to office.
The similarities between the 1970s are notable. The 2008 economic crash represented a watershed in both politics and economics in the same way as the oil crisis of the early 1970s broke the post war consensus and led Jim Callaghan to proclaim ‘the party’s over’, that Labour could no longer base its governing strategy on redistributing the proceeds of economic growth. Phil Collins of The Times put the case that for Labour to win in 2015 the party has to work out what it means to govern with no more money. He reminded Progress members that Labour’s first term in government was characterised by fiscal prudence. Labour did not win in 1997 by promising to spend more money.
Labour lost its reputation for economic competence by substantially increasing borrowing such that when the crash hit tax revenues in 2008 there was no money in the government’s bank to cushion the economic storm. The public do not think the world economic crisis was caused by the Labour government, but they want to see us accept our share of responsibility for not being better prepared for an economic downturn. We were, after all, in charge of the nation’s finances at the time. As Liam Byrne commented, if people don’t trust you on how you will spend their money, you won’t be elected.
The shadow cabinet have to win the argument as to why a future Labour government will manage taxpayers’ money better than the coalition, but so do all Labour councillors, particularly in towns and cities where Labour is running the council. That means ensuring that every penny of public money is spent wisely on issues that matter most to residents; people decide what they think of politicians and political parties based on their own experiences. Businesses will not trust Labour with their money if they have to ring the council three times to correct a missed bin collection; neither will council tenants if three visits are required to complete a simple repair to their property rather than one.
Mary Riddell of The Telegraph thought that while the last couple of weeks had been very good for Labour – the party is now getting a second look – if people don’t see what they are looking for, they will go elsewhere. Labour still has a huge amount of work to do to tell a compelling story about what difference a Labour government would make to people’s lives.
Andrew Adonis set out an ‘anti austerity, pro growth and pro reform agenda’ for Labour’s 2015 manifesto. The Tories promised growth and jobs and have delivered recession and unemployment. All the G7 economies, except Italy, are doing better than the UK economy. If the UK’s GDP returned to 2008 level there would be an extra £60 billion in the economy. Labour needs to make the case for an active state to stimulate economic growth – making things matters, and Britain needs an industrial strategy, a national infrastructure plan for the next 20 years and a skills strategy.
Andrew Adonis argued that Labour in government significantly improved education, but further reform and higher standards are needed more than ever as the competitive pressures of the global economy will only intensify. Yet Labour does not need to wait until 2015. We can demonstrate our values by acting now. Engaging with business, schools, colleges and universities to promote local economic growth needs to be at the top of every council leader’s list of priorities. Youth unemployment is a very serious problem, but it is made worst by low levels of achievement. After a decade of investment in education, young people should not be leaving school with no qualifications. Head teachers need to be held to account by governors and councillors for their school’s performance.
If there are parallels with the 1970s for Labour to draw on, there are also striking differences that Labour will need to address. In February 1974, Edward Heath called a general election on the theme of ‘Who Governs Britain?’ Despite being held on a dark, wet Thursday, 79 per cent of the electorate wanted to answer this question. In 2010 only 65 per cent of people voted and in the 2012 local elections the turnout was a frightening 32 per cent.
Liam Byrne articulated the strong anti-politics mood he encountered on the doorstep. People were boiling with rage about the trashing of their values that they hold dear such as parents being penalised for working by losing up to £40 per week in tax credit, but their strategy is to disengage from politics rather than to rush down to the polling station to express their anger. The task for Labour is for Labour to be the party of old fashioned values – thrift, hard work, looking out for people – and reform.
How to achieve the political winning combination of being true to one’s values whilst championing reform was brilliantly argued by Peter Kellner of You Gov. Peter argued that Tony Blair was stunningly successful in winning elections because he articulated Labour’s vision in terms of ‘reassuring radicalism’. Risky radicalism doesn’t win elections; reassuring radicalism does. Tony Blair understood this to his political fingertips.
Blair sought to sooth and reassure people who had never voted Labour in their life that he understood their values and would deliver on the issues that mattered to them. Blair offered reassurance to the business community that enabled Labour to deliver Britain’s first minimum wage; his ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’ message reassured people that Labour would put victims first, not criminals. In office Blair was radical on the need to dramatically improve school performance, particularly in deprived communities by creating academies, to reassure parents that their priorities were his priorities, regardless of what the teaching unions thought. In 2015, people will want to be reassured that Labour won’t duck difficult decisions on banking reform, utilities, excessive pay and tax avoidance.
The general election of 2015 will be fought and won on the economy. Labour can win this election by convincing the majority of the British people that they are more likely to be in work and have higher living standards under a Labour government than a majority Tory government. To do so Labour will need to persuade people that we will use their money wisely, that we invest in promoting economic growth and we are prepared to make difficult decisions to reform not only the public sector, but the private sector too. Reassurance and radical reform must be our guiding principles.
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Sally Prentice is the Cabinet Member for Culture, Leisure and Olympics in Lambeth