‘Mia san mia’ – we are who we are – is the unofficial motto of Germany’s most successful football club, Bayern Munich. It has come to symbolise the Bavarian team’s ability to win through no matter what, a self-congratulatory creed that emphasises the club’s credentials as one of the world’s biggest. While to opponents ‘mia san mia’ can appear to be a creed of unsurpassable hubris, to Bayern’s supporters  it is a reminder of their ability to come back from the dead, to prevail through late goals and sudden surges in form, to overcome all challenges. The difference between political parties and football teams, of course, is that football teams only have to worry about the concerns of their loyal supporters.

‘Mia san mia’ is the motto that has got the Conservatives into such a mess. While Conservative thinkers and commentators might kid themselves that all they need is a few more political people in Downing Street, a little bit of the old ‘command-and-control’ at the heart of the machine, the real reason why the Cameron premiership is hopelessly adrift is because they gave into the demands of their ultras. ‘We are who we are’ – it’s the only justification for prioritising, in a budget crying out for fiscal stimulus and a tax cut for those on the lowest incomes, the needs of the one per cent. ‘We are who we are’ – it’s the only justification for a deficit reduction timetable based not on economics, but on the crude politics of being able to offer a tax cut before the 2015 election. The Conservatives are in a bind because they’ve started to do things that Conservatives do, and the electorate was sold a rather different proposition in David Cameron: a compassionate Conservative, European social democracy with a Whiggish tinge.

That, added to a string of election victories and the first polls showing Labour taking the lead on economic competence, contributes to a feeling that is no longer outlandish to believe that this will be a one-term government. Equally, Labour can draw comfort from the growing and palpable sense that we are seeing a transformed Ed Miliband. At Progress annual conference, we saw Ed as we’d never seen him before: confident, commanding, even funny. For perhaps the first time since he became leader, he looked and sounded a credible prime minister. It remains to be seen whether or not the coalition has truly reached its half-life – the point where decay outstrips growth – or if Cameron still has the ability to rejuvenate his party.

My feeling is, he hasn’t. My feeling is that a Conservative majority is now beyond his grasp. If the Conservatives do remain in power after 2015, it will be in minority or in a second coalition with some particularly masochistic Liberal Democrats. The decision to prioritise the abolition of the 50p rate above all broke the back of the Cameron project, not because of its reach, but, as with the abolition of the 10p rate, because it conveyed the impression of an out-of-touch government enacting measures that were intrinsically and obviously unfair. Just as the Brown government never recovered from the loss of credibility and respect that it suffered during the 10p tax fiasco, this government will never restore the sense that it speaks for Britain. The voters who weren’t convinced by Cameron in 2010 will remain unconvinced in 2015.

This is cause for celebration, but with an important caveat: while victory may no longer be within Cameron’s grasp, defeat is still within Labour’s reach. We are beginning to see the contours of what we might one day dub ‘Milibandism’, but the new centre-ground can’t be imagined by Labour activists alone. It has to reflect the concerns of the people as a whole, because ‘we are who we are’ is no more convincing as a progressive creed than a Conservative one. Instead, ‘we are who you are’ must continue to be Labour’s guide in the years to come. Conservative collapse won’t, in and of itself, be enough to deliver a victory. So, by all means, rejoice. But remember there’s still a way to go.

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Stephen Bush is a member of Progress, works as a journalist, and writes at adangerousnotion.wordpress.com

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Photo: Martin Deutsch