The headline news that a Turkish state body – the Habur Border Gate Administration – had for the first time used the term ‘Iraqi Kurdistan regional government’ in an official document symbolises a big change in the Middle East.
The border between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan used to be characterised by petty and pointless spite towards Iraqi Kurds and those going there.
A few years back the Fire Brigades Union drove a fire engine from London to donate it to Iraqi Kurdistan. It was delayed for a day at the border with no food or drink for the drivers.
All that is changing partly due to the vacuum left by the departure of American soldiers which is changing old habits and hostilities. A new and pragmatic relationship with Turkey has been carefully nurtured by the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan. Last year the Turkish prime minister joined the Kurdistan regional president in formally opening the brand new airport in Erbil. I have just attended an historic conference in Erbil where senior international oil and gas executives joined Turkish and Kurdish ministers and officials to discuss a new economic relationship.
This high-profile and choreographed courtship could build what a senior Turkish foreign ministry official called ‘new horizons of strategic partnership’. The economic rationale is a no-brainer. Turkey lacks energy resources but is set to join the top 10 world economies and is thirsty economy for oil and gas. Kurdistan has 45 billion barrels of oil and a century’s worth of gas.
Ankara and Erbil have agreed plans for oil and gas pipelines. Reliable and diverse energy sources and routes is the prize. Kurdish gas is also cheaper than supplies from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan. Kurdistan and Turkey become part of the chain of secure energy supplies to the Europe and the UK. The Kurds turn their long-neglected assets into better public services and diversify their economy. They aspire to be much more than a rentier state where an elite buys repression and ignores democratic politics.
But Kurdistan is landlocked and needs at least one friendly neighbour to export is natural wealth. Kurdistan is part of Iraq but relations with Baghdad are currently dire. Kurdish success in unleashing its energy sector, attracting major western companies and challenging bureaucrats and wannabe dictators in Baghdad have riled some in the central government. Others want Arab Iraq to emulate the Kurdish success story.
The Iraqi PM claims that the Kurds cannot export energy without permission. The Kurds argue this centralist approach breaches the constitution agreed by the Iraqi people in 2005. They say that exported oil remains Iraqi oil and benefits the whole country. The Kurds will send the revenue to Baghdad minus their 17 per cent share.
Exploiting their resources should not be seen as secessionist but a benefit to Iraq as a whole. A solid link with Turkey based on unsentimental economics gives the Kurds greater leverage with Baghdad in finalising a feasible federal framework based on the constitution. The Iraqi prime minister has helped Erbil by abusing Turkey as a hostile state.
The new Kurdo-Turkish link has just started and who knows where it will end. The architect of the energy synergy is the Kurdish minister of natural resources Ashti Hawrami. He told me that putting economics first means that ‘things that mattered once will come to matter less.’ Kurdistan can fairly present itself as a solution to many problems and allow new solutions to old problems to develop naturally. There is a growing debate within Kurdistan about whether an independent state is becoming possible. That could happen with Turkish support. Or Kurdistan could stay in Iraq and be independent in all but name. Autonomy with prosperity in a drug- and crime-free society could trump full independence. This is a powerful argument for Turkey helping make Iraqi Kurdistan work.
And the rapprochement can ease tensions in Turkey itself where aversion to the K word has been driven by fears of aiding rebellion in south-east Turkey where most of its own Kurds live.
Kurdish areas of Turkey can benefit from increased trade. Better conditions can isolate PKK guerillas whose 28-year war with Turkey has cost 40,000 lives and still prompts cross-border raids on their camps in the remote mountains within Iraqi Kurdistan.
If the PKK laid down its arms then the Kurds and Turkey would find it easier to negotiate a new relationship within the country. This new ‘open door policy’ can allow the Kurds to prosper, galvanise the rest of Iraq and reframe old and bitter disputes more constructively. Kurdistan is no longer taboo and its dynamism could be a force for good in the Middle East.
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Gary Kent is the Administrator of the all-party parliamentary group on the Kurdistan region. He tweets @GaryKent
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