Against the backdrop of the relentless tide of bad news the coalition has faced in recent weeks, the quarterly crime statistics released last week must have provided a rare moment of relief for the government. Most types of crime were down, recorded crime as a whole fell by four per cent and murder dropped to a 30-year low. Less positive aspects of the performance, such as the rise in certain types of acquisitive crime, or the decline seen in detection rates, were generally glossed over by positive media coverage.
The timing may be helpful for the Tories, with the poll for the new police and crime commissioners less than four months away. Conventional wisdom has it that the Conservatives should do well in these elections, especially given their traditional strength on law and order.
However, the polls tell another story. Analysis by the Police Foundation suggests that Labour could win almost as many PCC posts as the Tories if the party were to replicate our performance in this May’s local elections. Moreover, a poll by ComRes shows that a large majority of people are prepared to consider switching parties in PCC elections, with Lib Dem and Tory voters more likely to do so than Labour ones. The same poll also suggests that up to a third of Tory voters would be prepared to support independent candidates. Given these findings, a number of PCC seats that start as notionally Tory-based, such as Lancashire or Derbyshire, look eminently winnable.
However, these elections will also be hedged by considerable uncertainty. Turnout may well be low: recent polling suggests that fewer than one in five voters knows about the elections. Moreover, there is a high degree of public scepticism, with two-thirds of voters believing that PCCs will merely add layers of bureaucracy and over half thinking that the posts are a waste of money. A slew of independent candidates and the supplementary vote system will further complicate matters, as will the Lib Dems’ decision not to contest every post. The shape and scale of the constituencies will also add complexity: all cover multiple local authorities and parliamentary constituencies and some are very large indeed, with for instance the West Midlands PCC boundaries encompassing 29 parliamentary seats.
In this environment, having well-known local candidates and a compelling message will be particularly important. Labour has started well, picking a number of high-profile figures, including John Prescott, Jane Kennedy, Alun Michael and Vera Baird as well as respected campaigners like Clare Moody. Our strong raft of candidates has been complemented by the development of an effective national policy platform. Yvette Cooper’s focus on domestic violence will give Labour candidates a distinctive policy offer on a critical crime issue – party research has found that as many as one in five calls to the police are related to domestic violence – as well as resonating with voters who have consistently placed violent crime at the top of their list of concerns. Ed Miliband’s questioning of outsourcing frontline police services should also play well in the wake of the G4S fiasco.
However, to capitalise on this strong start, organisation will be key. The campaign will require Labour not only to replicate our success in the May local elections in mobilising voters but also to coordinate regional campaigns across numerous parliamentary constituencies and local authority areas, some with little experience in working together. The organisational reforms that Iain McNicol is bringing in will help strengthen the party as a campaigning force. But all of this will require significant effort from candidates and activists alike. However, if we can successfully mobilise, a strong result in November should be within our grasp.
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David Pinto-Duschinsky is a former special adviser at the Home Office and the Treasury
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There is a reason why recorded crime has fallen and it’s the same reason why ‘overall’ crime often claimed as being significantly reduced hasn’t been and that’s because far to many people think that reporting crime is futile.
I do hope we are not just putting Labour candidates forward just so Labour can win.
We need people whose first interest interest has to be the community and preventing more victims of crime with their political leanings a distant second.
If ‘we’ are just going to walk into constituencies and say “vote for ‘us’ because we are Labour” and the other parties do the same, then it is little wonder that the expected low turnout is what is being predicted.
PCC’s are an even dafter idea than elected mayors. At least you may have a plurality of experience, expertise and better accountability via Police Authorities. Lots of candidates are superannuated politicians such as Michael and Prescott. The public are not demanding another set of well paid politicians. I always vote, but not this time for Labour (or anyone else). Is anyone outside of the political class talking about these elections? Of course not!
‘Most types of crime were down’. Well done officialdom, the more you say, the more it will be believed’. There has always been a difference between actual crime committed, crime reported, crime recorded by the police, let alone what is detected and dealt with in the courts.
There has been immense pressure within the police to under record crime, especially those politicians focus on; such as robbery and house burglary. One new deputy chief constable announced upon arrival ‘Your problem is you over-record crime’. Nothing like a clear signal for massaging the figures there.
Not to overlook the practice of referring all cheque and credit card fraud to the bank or card issuer. For commercial fraud it is now recorded for ‘intelligence purposes’ and sent to a clearing house run by the City of London Police.
Official police figures diverge from what insurers report, in particular the theft of vehicles; there are now more stolen cars on the road, as the police no longer recover so many. Let alone the problem of ‘car key burglaries’, to steal a car you now need the keys and in theory a more serious crime is likely.