Government ministers regularly point to the numbers of people being found ‘fit for work’ as proof that their strong medicine is working, and therefore far too many people have been allowed to languish on incapacity benefits for too long. The work capability assessment – the test for employment and support allowance – has been much criticised, as has the performance of the testing company Atos.

So in July 2012 minister Chris Grayling was able to announce that 55 per cent of people who put in a claim for ESA between September and November 2011 had been found fit for work.

The most recently published figures for those being moved from incapacity benefit show 37 per cent of those referred for reassessment up to July 2011 (no more recent figures are available) had been found fit for work.

For the government that seems to be ‘job done’. But what is actually happening to those people?

I’ve asked a number of parliamentary questions about this. The answer I got to a question about job outcomes started with the usual statement about the information being incomplete and not suitable for publication because people leaving ESA don’t have to let the DWP know what they do next. However, the minister did refer to a piece of research commissioned by the last government as ESA was being introduced, and stated that 28 per cent had moved into work, 48 per cent had claimed another benefit (mostly job seeker’s allowance) and 25 per cent had ‘other destinations’.

But this tells only half the story.

These figures refer to the position of people immediately after they came off ESA (between December 2009 and February 2010, having first claimed between April and June 2009). This piece of research looked again at these people between July and September 2010. At this stage 29 per cent were in work (so only very slightly more than seven months previously), 28 per cent were on JSA or income support, but 43 per cent were neither working nor claiming an out-of-work benefit.

It would appear that substantial numbers of people are coming off JSA after six months without having found a job. If they have a partner in work (not necessarily full-time work) they won’t then qualify for income-related JSA.

There are likely to be some people who just don’t cope well with the demands of JSA. The research pointed out that:

‘There are clearly some people who fail to qualify for ESA who may nonetheless find it difficult to establish a JSA claim, and comply with the requirement to be actively seeking work due to health reasons. There is the potential for these people to fall into a gap between the two benefit regimes.’

For some it may be easier to stop claiming.

As a follow-up to this research some qualitative research was carried out with a sample from the larger study and this found that:

‘[Many] were reliant on a range of sources of income, for example, savings, cashing in insurance policies, or borrowing or being supported by friends or family. In some cases people were under considerable financial pressure and these income sources did not seem sustainable in the long-term.’

There is no further published research and the current government seems uninterested in following this up further. No doubt some people after a while will find jobs, and others will reach state retirement age. Some may end up qualifying for income-related JSA as their other resources diminish. But for all household income is much reduced.

We could be talking about large numbers here. For new ESA claims from October 2008 to November 2011 (the most recent for which we have figures) 731,400 have been found fit for work. If some 40 per cent of them are neither working nor on JSA, that could be some 292,000 somewhere in this unknown limbo.

For those migrating from incapacity benefit the numbers found fit for work to July 2011 were 47,400. That could mean some 18,000 or so in a similar position.

It was wrong to sideline so many people into long-term incapacity benefits as was done between 1979 and 1997. Numbers started to fall under the Labour government, albeit slowly.

The process of moving people off benefit is supposed to be about giving people the chance to learn the skills and gain the confidence to find employment. The ‘disappeared’ are not getting that help – as they disappear off JSA they will not be getting help from staff at Job Centre Plus, nor from the work programme.

It appears the government cares little about these people so long as they can show people coming off benefit, and thus their policy to be working.

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Sheila Gilmore is MP for Edinburgh East. She tweets @SheilaGilmoreMP

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Photo: Marin Nikolov