If I were a Lib Dem strategist, I would be praying that the 2015 general election delivers a hung parliament where Labour is the biggest party but needs the Lib Dems to form a government. Why not the Tories? Simply because that risks creating the image (and possibly the reality) of the Lib Dems becoming nothing more than the Euro-friendly arm of the Conservative party. And in the long term that means political extinction as their more left-leaning voters turn away after another parliament of supporting rightwing policies. On the other hand, a coalition with Labour not only allows the Lib Dems to reassert their identity, but it has the added bonus of getting the electorate more used to the idea that a third party which holds the balance of power can stay in government from one election to another.
Very interesting, but so what? Well, if I were a Labour strategist I would be using this thought process to trigger pre-election negotiations with the Lib Dems. These would be aimed at both limiting the ability of the current coalition government to impose more Tory-inspired misery on the British public and to improve Labour’s chances in 2015. To achieve this, these would be my key points in negotiations:
1. Economic policy – no coalition is possible if the partners have wildly different views on how to manage the economy. That’s why Nick Clegg had to have his Damascene conversion on the need for massive cuts during the coalition negotiations (you remember – the one supposedly triggered by a conversation with Mervyn King, which the governor of the Bank of England didn’t remember taking place). This means that if they hope to enter a coalition with us in 2015, there is no way the Lib Dems can go into the general election still blaming Labour for the economic situation and supporting the Tory ‘too far, too fast’ cuts programme. Instead, we would need to see a significant change in their language and behaviour prior to 2015. This means stopping trying to palm off the coalition’s economic mistakes on ‘clearing up the mess Labour left’, visibly arguing for a slowing down of the austerity programme and starting to oppose specific cuts.
2. Nick Clegg – nothing personal but, following his broken promises on tuition fees and more, he is the most vilified politician in the current government (although George Osborne is doing his best to change this) and I don’t believe that the British public would accept him staying on the frontbench of a new administration. It’s the same position we had with Gordon Brown after the 2010 election. This means that the Lib Dems will need a new leader. I don’t think Danny Alexander or David Laws are out as a matter of principle, but Vince Cable, Tim Farron or Simon Hughes would clearly be more acceptable candidates. Would this change have to take place prior to the election? I believe it would, ideally coinciding with the Lib Dems leaving the current Coalition and starting to campaign on a programme much closer to Labour’s.
3. House of Lords reform – while Clegg’s bill was fundamentally flawed and more to do with David Cameron’s gerrymandering then genuine reform, Labour must support a properly thought-out redesign of the second chamber that makes it more accountable. Starting working jointly on these proposals now would enable us to campaign on a similar platform in 2015. In return, Lords reform and the boundary review would need to be permanently taken off the agenda for this parliament.
I appreciate that this might seem an odd debate to be having when we’re riding high in the polls and the coalition can’t seem to put a foot right. But let’s not forget that it’s midterm. As we get closer to the 2015 election we should expect both the Tories and the Lib Dems to bounce back. How high that bounce takes them will depend on what happens over the next two and a half years, but another hung parliament can’t be ruled out, and we’d do well to prepare for that eventuality now rather than in May 2015.
Rhea Keehn is a Labour campaigner and member of Progress. She tweets @RheaKeehn
Out of the mooted names, only Farron has the significant differentiation from the LD platform. Hughes may have ambitions, but his past record (particularly that Bermondsey election against Tatchell) count against him. Cable won’t be able to divorce himself enough from the coalition by 2015 now that he has a whole group of minders at BiS.
The mid-terms, as we can now confidently call them due to the fixed term, are interesting. The Govt recognise themselves at a low, and Labour have enjoyed a lead since late March in double digits. Further election results at PCC, County and Borough will reveal further the extent of the self harm that Cameron and Clegg have inflicted on their respective parties. Which leads to an interesting thought, with the LD’s stuck on 8% or lower – will there be enough of them in the House of Commons after the 2015 election to form a coalition with? And after the disaster of this one, will theybe willing to enter into a formal coalition, or will it be a looser issue by issue basis?
Thanks for your comment John. I take the point about the number of MPs the LDs are likely to have after the next general election. However, what I’m suggesting is that we can use their strategic need to work with us after 2015 to our advantage now. It will be interesting to see what happens next with the LDs and Labour in light of the reshuffle.
Thinking ahead to the next election Cable is going to be 72 and Hughes will be 64 – I dont doubt that both have the ability to do it but I would expect both will be looking more towards retirement than the hassle of being in Government as Deputy Prime Minister/other high level role. Farron on the other hand will be 44/45 so much more likely to want to commit himself to five years of Government. And what of the rest – I can only think of Kennedy as being at all suitable.
Well Simon Hughes is very likely to lose his seat in 2015.
True – I am expecting an announcement before the election that he will be retiring in 2015 after 32 years as an MP, maybe his role will be as one of the facilitators of discussions rather than as a future minister
If he steps down then Labour will easily take Bermondsey and Old Southwark without the need for a fight. I am of the strong opinion that in the event of a hung parliament, we should not go in Coalition with the Lib Dems but form a minority government instead. Not just that they’ve been backing the Tories, but electorally not only will around 45% of their voters have come to us but they would have been thrown out of office as an unpopular, discredited and toxic party. We would be seen doing a deal with Tories.
I think this post in some ways is good but flawed in the sense that a bounce back for the Lib Dems and the Tories only depends on whether there is sufficient growth at the time of the next election. Also, there will not be a bounce back for the Lib Dems. They have been scoring within the region of 8% to 12% in the polls for the last two years. Come 2015, when their record will be hung around their necks, things will get even worse not better. We should avoid a Lib-Lab Coalition at all costs, because it would not only be strategically stupid but a let down to Labour supporters plus they will be annoying coalition partners.
It’s sad if it’s come to this stage already.That the pursuit of power at all costs is the engine room of a once avowed socialist party! Whilst conceding that all the Labour Party is now is a pale shadow of even a social democratic party,it at least has a history,a hinterland, and still has members who aspire to something better than talking about coalitions with the likes of the discredited Lib-Dems.
If the distinct political programme of a radical left party is no longer an option, then at least the leadership should look in a different direction.
If you want a coalition Rhea, then look to the Greens, look to Plaid,look to the SNP, look to the nationalists in N.I. They all have more radical programmes than the bloody Lib-Dems.
But then it’s likely in two years time the SNP will be engaged in something more interesting!
The much discredited AES platform of the 1970’s was a better option than some sort of ‘accommodation’ with the hapless LD’s whoever they have as leader.
Thinking about the AES it was only discredited by those who sought to drive Labour to the right-to create New Labour.
Be realistic, John. Greens believe in no growth, Plaid want to destroy the UK, SNP want to destroy the UK, Sienn Fienn don’t even attend Parliament amongst other things. They are all fringe pressure groups who hold little power in the Commons and are not parties or people for government. If there is a hung parliament we either go it alone or work with the Lib Dems.
Renie
,Be realistic?’fringe pressure groups’?Remind me who got thrashed in the last elections in Scotland.Life is not all about the Commons you know?The parties you named all have far more radical policies than the Labour Party.The recent history of the party has shown that it is too closely tied to fiscal policies that stifle growth an innovation.
What is needed urgently is a growth policy concerned with developing new skills and new technologies.If you rifle through a few history books you’ll see that was what the Alternative Economic Strategy was all about.Its a bit creaky now but for instance had the suggestions of the BAe. shop stewards combine been adopted,instead of weapons of mass distruction, our highly talented workers would have been making electric cars,advanced medical equipment and solar energy technology thirty years ago,and not in the private sector.
The radicalism you mean is destroying the UK, not attending Parliament and destroying growth. That is not my kind of radicalism and if you ask the man on the street, that is not their kind of radicalism too. What fiscal policy of Labour’s stifles growth or has stifled growth? Name one.
What fiscal policies of Labour?Start with day one of New Labour-the decision to carry on with the previous government’s financial strictures.Continue through New Labour’s slavish acceptance of the free market ideology,the easy familiarity with the banking establishment….My dear ‘man in the street’ how many examples do you want?
And how pray does the radical ideas of SNP and others ‘destroy the UK’?One day perhaps we will have a federation of independent republics that will replace ‘the kingdom’.Indeed they might even include some socialist republics,or at least some social democratic ones!
And in case Renie you doubt my credentials-40 odd years in the Labour Party accepting the compromises suit you?
And by the way-what growth do you think has been destroyed?
Hi John, thanks for your comment. My article is suggesting that because we can predict what the Lib Dem position on coalition post-2015 is likely to be, we can use this knowledge to our advantage now. If you re-read the piece you’ll see I haven’t suggested we should be aiming for a coalition with anyone. In fact, the better our strategy now, the better the chances of a Labour majority
It’s sad if it’s come to this stage already.That the pursuit of power at all costs is the engine room of a once avowed socialist party! Whilst conceding that all the Labour Party is now is a pale shadow of even a social democratic party,it at least has a history,a hinterland, and still has members who aspire to something better than talking about coalitions with the likes of the discredited Lib-Dems.
If the distinct political programme of a radical left party is no longer an option, then at least the leadership should look in a different direction.
If you want a coalition Rhea, then look to the Greens, look to Plaid,look to the SNP, look to the nationalists in N.I. They all have more radical programmes than the bloody Lib-Dems.
But then it’s likely in two years time the SNP will be engaged in something more interesting!
The much discredited AES platform of the 1970’s was a better option than some sort of ‘accommodation’ with the hapless LD’s whoever they have as leader.
Thinking about the AES it was only discredited by those who sought to drive Labour to the right-to create New Labour.
Rhea, you should be utterly and completely ashamed of yourself.
Progress’ aims and values are not those of the Labour party. They are in support of Thatcherism lite and every Labour party member should be fighting to rid this country of any vestige of Thatcherism there is.
The insidious influence of Progress puts millions of people off voting Labour and Progress’ disgraceful tactics of smearing Left wingers are despicable.
You need to decide which side you’re on, because sooner rather than later Progress will be proscribed.