Labour in Scotland has a vested interest in Labour starting to win in the south. The outcome of the 2014 separation referendum could turn in large part on the perception of how well Labour is doing in the south and therefore the likelihood of a Labour government in 2015.

In the language of Scottish politics, ‘Westminster’ and ‘Tory’ are too often virtually interchangeable terms. Just look, says Alex Salmond, at what is happening at Westminster – the NHS being destroyed, people with disabilities losing benefits, millionaires being given tax cuts. The message is that if you want to be protected from that vote yes to independence.

In 1955 the Tories had 36 Scottish MPs (out of 71) with 50.1 per cent of the popular vote. Even in 1979 they had 22 seats (from 71) and 25 per cent of the vote. Now there is only one seat (of 59) with 16.7 per cent of the vote. The Thatcher years destroyed Tory support in Scotland, and the folk memory remains strong. This was greatly to Labour’s advantage in May 2010, when we not only returned 41 MPs but many had enhanced majorities.

The anti-Thatcher mood fuelled support for devolution in the run-up to the 1997 devolution referendum.  Are the same factors going to affect the independence referendum?

The SNP certainly hopes so. The notion that Scots are far more leftwing than the rest of the UK has assumed mythic status. The reality may be slightly less clear-cut. For example, I find opinions expressed on welfare reform among many of my constituents reflect some of the opinion polling on attitudes to welfare shown in other parts of the UK. The Scottish government’s five-year long council tax freeze is extremely popular, despite its regressive effects (the poorest have gained nothing and those in the highest tax bands most) and the restrictions it has imposed on local councils to develop services.

Despite this the myth of the Scottish social democratic consciousness remains powerful and we Scots like to think we are much more communitarian than the English.

The argument is already being made by the SNP, and if the prospects of another Tory government revive over the next two years, more and more often Scots will be told that only a vote for independence will protect them.

Remember too that if Scotland leaves the UK the prospects for ongoing Tory government in England are strengthened. So our futures are inextricably linked. Labour can’t just talk to its heartlands, whether these are in Scotland or Tyneside. We all need to be working towards winning back that southern vote. This year’s local election results were encouraging, but there’s still a lot more to do.

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Sheila Gilmore is MP for Edinburgh East. She tweets @SheilaGilmoreMP

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Photo: The Laird of Oldham